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Brazil are healthy -144 favorites in the World Cup odds to win their face-off vs. Japan in Houston.
Yet the +425 Asian underdogs can do better than expected, and I back them to avoid defeat in a high-scoring Round of 32 clash.
Read on for my Brazil vs. Japan predictions and World Cup picks for today’s affair, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
TOP PICK
Who will win Brazil vs Japan: Draw (+291)
Brazil’s status as the most successful nation in World Cup history often results in their odds being shorter than they should be. That is the case here and one of several reasons why the ‘Seleção’ should be opposed.
Carlo Ancelotti’s players won two of their three Group C fixtures by 3-0 scorelines. Yet neither of the two sides they beat — Haiti and Scotland — has made the knockout phase, underlining that the two convincing victories offer limited insight into how this far more challenging fixture may unfold.
At the time of writing, the prices say Japan stand only a 41% chance of avoiding defeat. The underdogs are underrated given that they went unbeaten (W1-D2-L0) through their three Group F fixtures.
Their price looks even more appealing given that they deservedly drew 2-2 against the Netherlands, who are clear favorites in the Round of 32 to beat Morocco, who deservedly took points off Brazil (1-1) in the group phase.
It may be too much to ask Japan to win in regulation time. But Hajime Moriyasu’s players should outperform the market. Play the draw at anything down to +250.
Monday’s World Cup slate is absolutely loaded 👀
🇧🇷 Brazil vs Japan 🇯🇵
🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Morocco 🇲🇦
Today’s best bets favour experience and attacking talent 📈 @Covers pic.twitter.com/spfHsTy5XQ
— Chris Vasile (@mc_silly3) June 29, 2026
Brazil vs Japan Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+101)
While the World Cup has been a high-scoring tournament so far, there is no guarantee that the goals-heavy trends we witnessed throughout the group phase will continue into the knockout rounds. For that reason, proceed with caution in the goal markets until we know more.
That said, as the marginal outsider of the two, Over 2.5 Goals looks the value play in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market here.
Brazil and Japan’s six opening-round games produced 18 goals (an average of three per game). The average xG (Expected Goals) across those six games was 2.57 (albeit swelled by Brazil’s high xG in their 3-0 win over Scotland).
The way I expect Japan to play is another reason to support Overs. They attacked cleverly and scored in all three of their group games (2-2 vs Netherlands, 4-0 vs Tunisia, 1-1 vs Sweden).
I expect Japan to use Morocco’s group-stage performance vs Brazil (1-1) as the template for taking on the South Americans: outwit them in midfield, push your wide players high, and be merciless when you have them on the run.
Play the Over up to -110.
Brazil vs Japan goal scorer pick: Vinicius Junior (+140)
With the spotlight trained on superstars Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Junior largely flew under the radar during the group stage, even though his contributions were crucial to his country.
The Real Madrid winger scored four times in three games to quietly take his place among the Golden Boot contenders. The accuracy of his shooting stood out: his four goals came from just 12 attempts, eight of which were on target.
Brazil will need more decisive performances from their star man to go deep in the World Cup bracket. The plus-money price appeals on a man in form. Back him to find the net at anything up to +130.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Brazil vs Japan projected lineup
Brasil (4-3-3): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Lucas Paquetá; Rayan, Matheus Cunha, Vinícius Júnior.
Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Itakura, H.Ito; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Maeda, Kamada; Ueda
Brazil vs Japan injuries
Brazil: Raphinha LW (Out).
Japan: Endo CM (Out), Itakura CB (Doubtful), Kubo AM (Doubtful).
Brazil vs Japan weather
This match is being played in a dome.
Brazil vs Japan odds
 Brazil |
 Japan |
|
|---|---|---|
| -144 | Moneyline | +425 |
| +300 | Draw | +300 |
| Over 2.5 (+101) | Total | Under 2.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Brazil vs Japan
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Monday, June 29, 2026 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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