FIFA’s official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup has been forced into restricting access to its platform in Germany.
ADI Predictstreet, which only launched in early April, was the subject of more scrutiny after the German gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), launched proceedings against the company over its unlicensed offering.
The operator was given a licence by Gibraltar’s regulator as a betting intermediary and is able to operate in the US due to it being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) via its partnership with Fanatics – the first US sportsbook to launch its own predictions market.
However, ADI Predictstreet does not hold a German gambling licence and was therefore not authorised to market or make its services available to users in the country.
German broadcasts of the 2026 World Cup, as well as broadcasts in the UK, clearly show ADI Predictstreet’s logo across the LED advertising boards and big screens around stadiums, as well as in press conferences and interviews.
However, unlike the UK, Germany prevents unlicensed remote gambling being targeted to German players, and advertising and sponsorship for unlicensed companies is banned.
Following the regulator’s intervention, revealed last week, the company has geo-blocked German users, with visitors now reportedly seeing the message: “Access from your location (DE) is restricted (Country DE is blocked)”.
Germany sees problems with ADI Predictstreet…
A spokesperson for the GGL told German news outlet Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND): “As a result of the supervisory measures and the official intervention, the provider has since reacted and blocked access to its service for users from Germany.”
The regulator added that the move also means gambling services accessible from Germany will no longer be advertised.
Under Germany’s Interstate Treaty on Gambling, only operators included on the country’s official whitelist of licensed providers are permitted to offer or advertise gambling products.
Last week, the GGL joined several European gambling regulators in issuing a joint statement warning that prediction markets may present significant consumer protection concerns.
The regulators highlighted potential risks including inadequate player safeguards, gambling-related harm, market manipulation, fraud and a lack of transparency around how markets are settled and payouts are calculated.
Prediction markets, notably Kalshi and Polymarket, have also drawn criticism due to participants being able to profit from privileged or insider information, while allowing trading on controversial events beyond sport.
Kalshi no longer offers markets on political developments, but Polymarket still does.
ADI Predictstreet previously maintained that it had not breached German law, with a company spokesperson telling RND that it did not conduct marketing or advertising activities specifically targeted at Germany.
FIFA has not publicly commented on the regulator’s action despite repeated requests from German media, according to RND.
It represents more controversy for the German gambling market, which has become a clear victim of black market operators.
In sports betting, the German Sports Betting Union (DSWV) has said that there are 11 times more illegal betting providers than licensed ones, while H2 Gambling Capital has estimated channelisation rates to be at a measly 22%-25%, going down to 20% by 2030.
To put this into perspective, most European jurisdictions target a channelisation rate of 90%, and there was negative reaction just weeks ago in Sweden when its gambling regulator estimated a channelisation rate of 84%.
However, the ruling party in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has now outlined a clear path to revitalising the licensed industry in the country, and this condemnation of ADI Predictstreet from the GGL could represent the start of a revival.
… but Kalshi doesn’t
This blow for ADI Predictstreet does not seem to have prevented the company’s continued expansion, though.
On Friday, it announced a strategic partnership with prediction market giant Kalshi – a company rumoured to be seeking an IPO and a valuation of some $40bn.
Kalshi will be co-branded alongside ADI Predictstreet in stadium, TV, and online placements, and in the future it will give the newly-launched company a platform for international expansion.
The firms said that they will develop a co-branded World Cup hub for the knockout stages, providing access to “a wide range of global football prediction markets, alongside tournament updates and exclusive content”.
Kalshi is another prediction market operator that is said to have benefitted from the 2026 World Cup. The US firm struck partnerships with the Argentina and Croatia football teams, which resulted in Instagram posts promoting its brand from Luka Modrić and Lionel Messi, while it claims to have had daily trading volume of over $1bn throughout the tournament.
A partnership with Kalshi will give ADI Predictstreet more visibility, but associate it with another company which has had plenty of controversy itself, with Kalshi having been banned in several European markets and facing legal action in many US states.
ADI Predictstreet, meanwhile, has not exactly had a dramaless journey of its own, having only just launched its own platform days before the start of the World Cup and over two months on from being named a FIFA partner.
White label partnerships with the UK’s Matchbook and, as mentioned above, the US’ Fanatics have allowed it to operate to a degree in other jurisdictions.
In early June, the company announced that it had launched its ADI Predictstreet platform, however, the URL now redirects to Matchbook’s site – for UK users at least.
But it has been a prevalent brand for World Cup viewers, although this seems to have led to Germany taking action.
Fellow regulators across Europe following suit seems likely, but for now, the GGL has become the first regulator to kick ADI Predictstreet out of its jurisdiction.
