BRUSSELS — The EU is drafting plans to reward Serbia for dialing back controversial laws, in order to incentivize the country to stop backsliding on democracy.
Last week, Serbia’s parliament backed relaxing controversial rules that international legal experts had warned would undermine the independence of the judiciary and weaken the fight against organized crime. The European Commission is now looking for ways to incentivize Belgrade to continue reforms and avoid it reneging on commitments to the bloc, four officials working on the plans told POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to speak frankly about the initiative.
Those EU plans will, however, be delayed after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced at the weekend that he planned to resign and call parliamentary and presidential elections, making the timing a sensitive political issue.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen — along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — met Vučić during a summit in Montenegro earlier this month. They discussed the possibility of Belgrade being “rewarded” if it made a U-turn on laws incompatible with membership of the EU, two of the officials said.
The EU and the Venice Commission — the Council of Europe’s top legal body — had warned that the laws would have a chilling effect on the country’s democracy and institutions. They said the laws could have seen organized crime prosecutors lose their posts and investigations into corruption stifled. Those laws were scaled back as a result of votes in the parliament in Belgrade on Thursday.
“There is a general feeling we shouldn’t ‘lose’ Serbia completely,” said one of the officials, adding that while the Western Balkan country will not join the EU any time soon, it is important to keep it engaged in the accession process and encourage it to make reforms.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos spoke to Serbia’s parliamentary speaker on Friday following the rule change, and they discussed “the next steps for Serbia to move forward on its EU path.”
However, on Saturday, Vučić announced that he will resign and the country will head to the ballot box. “These are my last days and weeks as the republic’s president. After that, I will resign,” Vučić told supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) at a rally in Belgrade, according to media reports. His second and final mandate was due to expire in 2027.
Despite facing long-running protests and public discontent over corruption allegations, Vučić is expected to run to be prime minister.
“From what we hear it is not clear who will be … the candidates for the future elections,” Commission chief spokesperson Paula Pinho told journalists on Monday.
EU warns that cash could be withheld
Serbia has officially been an EU candidate country since 2012, but has been warned it could lose more than a billion euros in funding as a result of democratic backsliding and its close relations with Russia.
The EU is the largest provider of financial support to Serbia and allocated more than €586 million in non-repayable grants from 2021-2024. It has made as much as €1.5 billion more available conditional on reforms. According to the Serbian government, the country has received more than €7 billion in funds and investments from the EU since 2000.
Now, Serbia is pushing to open the third of six negotiating “clusters” in the coming weeks.
“Serbia has just adopted a set of judicial laws fully aligned with the recommendations of the Venice Commission,” said Danijel Apostolović, Serbia’s ambassador to the EU and chief negotiator.
“Opening of Cluster three would be important both for Serbia and the EU. It would mark a turning point in Serbia’s accession process and finally allow us to break the vicious circle in which we have been trapped for years.”
Cluster three, which covers competitiveness, economic growth, industrial policy and alignment with the EU’s Customs Union, is seen as a “less sensitive” area that could be advanced despite the big differences between the two sides, said one of the officials. The Commission has recommended that Serbia begin accession talks for the past five years, but has faced opposition from member countries — which need to give unanimous consent.
Diplomats from two capitals skeptical of Serbia’s progress, however, warned the opening of a new cluster remains unlikely. “Going back to square one by undoing the damage you’ve done is the bare minimum; it can’t be enough to merit a reward,” said one.
