After courting Indian users as part of a global expansion strategy, Kalshi has quietly withdrawn from the market amid a broader regulatory crackdown on prediction platforms.
Kalshi has updated its member agreement to block users in India from trading event contracts. The prediction markets company changed its member agreement dated June 17. Anyone who is domiciled, organized in, or located in the country can no longer trade on the platform.
The move marks a reversal from Kalshi’s October 2025 international expansion push, when the company announced plans to serve users in more than 140 countries, including India. The addition brings Kalshi’s list of restricted jurisdictions to 55 countries and territories.
Kalshi has sought to position itself as a compliance- and regulation-focused operator in an otherwise unconstrained sector. The decision isn’t surprising, as its U.S. federal CFTC license doesn’t affect how other regulators apply their national laws.
From Expansion to Exit
The June 17 amendment makes India a restricted jurisdiction under Kalshi’s member agreement, barring users who are domiciled, organized, or located in the country from accessing event contract trading. The agreement also allows Kalshi to update the restricted-jurisdiction list in response to changes in legal, regulatory, or business conditions.
The most notable part of the update is how long Kalshi held out before making it. The company was still onboarding Indian customers as recently as mid-May. Its legal counsel, Valeria Vouterakou, said at the time that Kalshi had contacted the Indian government and had not received an order to shut down.
She added that the platform would comply with any government requests “should they make them.” Just a few weeks later, the company could no longer ignore the requests and the enforcement action behind them.
How India Closed the Door
India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 led to a change in stance. The law, which came into effect on May 1, significantly expanded restrictions on online gambling. Legal analysts have broadly concluded that prediction markets fall within their scope.
The statute carries criminal exposures, including possible imprisonment, for anyone who facilitates, promotes, or finances illegal online gambling.
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, MeitY, issued an advisory on April 25, warning VPN providers and other intermediaries that they must not enable access to blocked prediction market sites and betting platforms, citing “Polymarket and a few other similar sites.”
Polymarket fell first, as MeitY subsequently blocked the market around May 21. Kalshi’s withdrawal followed weeks later, marking a sharp reversal of its October 2025 announcement that it was expanding into 140+ countries, including plans to serve customers in China and India.
The new online gaming ban in India largely scuppered these plans. It also pushed other gambling operators to withdraw, including Flutter Entertainment, which stopped all paid contests in its skill gaming subsidiary Junglee. That business was set to generate about $200 million in revenue for 2026.
Europe Following Suit
India’s clampdown is the latest move in an increasingly global pattern. Similar concerns are now emerging across Europe.
Gambling regulators from nine European countries signed a joint declaration on June 17, committing to act together against prediction markets operating without a local license. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland signed the declaration.
This is the first time European regulators have moved in such a coordinated fashion. The declaration came during the opening days of the FIFA World Cup, which attracts huge betting interest.
The regulators listed concerns such as the lack of account restriction tools, including betting or time limits, and light identity and age checks; the risk of insider trading; and the prospect of gambling harm among younger users.
France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) led the European charge and warned that these platforms can create “a significant addictive cycle.”
The regulators urged sports federations, leagues, and clubs to verify the status of any prediction market operator before signing commercial deals. They also laid out enforcement tools they could use, including formal warnings, fines, ad restrictions, and internet service provider-level blocking.
Countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium already block Polymarket and Kalshi through ISPs.
The amendment leaves India among 55 jurisdictions where Kalshi users are prohibited from trading event contracts, while regulators across Europe continue to explore coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction market operators.
The post Kalshi Retreats From India While European Regulators Target Prediction Markets appeared first on Gambling Insider.
