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Mexico have already won Group A, but there’s still plenty to play for when they face Czechia at the Azteca Stadium on Wednesday night.
Czechia must win if they hope to keep their World Cup odds alive, but my Mexico vs. Czechia predictions explain why they’re likely to fall short in a low-scoring affair.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Wednesday, June 24, with kickoff set for 9 p.m. ET.
Who will win Mexico vs Czechia: Draw (+300)
Czechia are managing less than 0.5 xG per match from open play, and have managed just 28 penalty-area touches through two matches.
That’s not going to get the job done against a Mexican side that have yet to concede a goal, and whose 60% aerial duel win rate ranks sixth-best in the competition.
Reports came out Monday Mexico manager Javier Aguirre will, in fact, be heavily rotating his squad, as expected. Some of the players reportedly taking the pitch include legendary keeper Memo Ochoa, young wunderkind Gilberto Mora, and struggling ST Santiago Gimenez.
Ochoa is a hero to many on this squad, and El Tri will want to send off their longtime servant with a result. Mora will be a creative spark for a side that will likely fully rest Julian Quinones, their primary playmaker.
Mexico won’t have the desperation driving them that Czechia will, but I feel they have enough quality to see this out for a result. They also have motivation of their own, as this will surely be Ochoa’s final time taking the pitch as a professional.
I’m projecting a 0-0 or 1-1 final, making the draw a great value play. I’m backing it to +275.
TOp pick
Mexico vs Czechia Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-122)
Given my scoreline projections, I’m clearly favoring the Under as the play here, and it’s in fact my best play of the match.
Against South Africa, 11 of Czechia’s 19 shots came via dead-ball situations. It’s where they’re at their best offensively, so it’s no surprise both goals have come via set piece.
Czechia sit sixth among all nations in set-piece shots per match, with those efforts accounting for 62.1% of their xG thus far.
Their problem on Wednesday is how well Mexico have defended those efforts. South Korea and South Africa combined for just 0.12 xG from set pieces in their two matches, with only three shots attempted.
On the flip side, Mexico were utterly wasteful in the opener against South Africa. Possession and dangerous positions failed to yield goals, and oftentimes even a shot.
El Tri have generated just four big chances so far in the tournament, and just 26 touches inside the box.
Gimenez is set to lead their line, and he’s been poor to say the least. He failed to score in 896 minutes in Serie A for AC Milan this campaign, and hasn’t found the back of the net since last September.
Given the offensive limitations for these two sides, I’m struggling to see where the goals come from. I’ll take the Under to -130.
Mexico vs Czechia projected lineup
Mexico (4-3-3): Ochoa; Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Vargas, Alvarez, Mora; Alvarado, Gimenez, Vega
Czechia (3-5-2): Kovar; Holes, Hranac, Krejci; Coufal, Darida, Cerv, Sadilek, Sojka; Schick, Hlozek
Mexico vs Czechia injuries
Mexico: No injuries to report.
Czechia: David Jurasek LB (Out).
Mexico vs Czechia weather
It is likely to be a wet evening at the Azteca, with temperatures in the low 60s and a better-than-50 % chance of rain.
Mexico vs Czechia odds
 Mexico |
 Czechia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -108 | Moneyline | +300 |
| +316 | Draw | +316 |
| Over 2.5 (+117) | Total | Under 2.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Mexico vs Czechia
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, MX |
| Date | Wednesday, June 24, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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