Polymarket is seeking to restore U.S. access to its main platform after years in regulatory exile, a decision that could reshape the future of prediction markets in the country.
Polymarket built one of the world’s largest prediction market platforms while largely excluding U.S. users from its main exchange. Now, the company is seeking to change that, holding discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about lifting the restriction that has kept Americans off its core platform since 2022.
These talks, first reported by Bloomberg, underscore the limits of Polymarket’s current approach of operating as the world’s go-to prediction market through an “offshore” platform while maintaining a half-built domestic beta.
Domestic rival Kalshi, which has operated under regulation since day one, has benefited from that structure, establishing a foothold in the U.S. while Polymarket remained offshore.
Kalshi has partnered with Robinhood and Coinbase and reached a $22 billion valuation as recently as March. Polymarket, despite its global popularity, reportedly seeks a valuation of $15 billion.
A Limited US Product
Polymarket attempted a domestic solution by paying $112 million in July 2025 to acquire QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. The agency issued a no-action letter, and Polymarket US launched its beta at the end of 2025.
The result fell short. The domestic product offers only sports markets and remains locked behind a waitlist, leaving hundreds of thousands of users still waiting.
It excludes the core categories — such as politics and macro-driven events — that helped drive the platform’s growth internationally. The company has said it plans to expand into climate, crypto, and election markets, but it hasn’t provided a timeline.
The Decision Rests With the CFTC
Polymarket now needs to convince CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to grant it a second chance.
Any change would require a formal commission vote. However, with four of the five CFTC seats currently vacant, Selig is, in practice, the sole decision-maker. He has also signaled openness to bringing more of this activity within the agency’s remit.
On April 16, he told the House Agriculture Committee:
To the extent that there are products available that are taking liquidity out of the United States, we’re going to make sure that we bring that back here into the United States under comprehensive regulation.”
The discussions reportedly include options such as merging the offshore platform’s blockchain technology with its domestic exchange and existing CFTC licenses, or consolidating entirely onto the U.S.-licensed platform. Either path would require major structural changes.
The decision also sits within a wider legal backdrop, as the CFTC continues to assert federal authority over prediction markets in court. At the same time, several states argue that such products fall under gambling regulation.
Not everyone supports the move.
A group of House Democrats wrote to Selig last month, calling for tougher enforcement against offshore prediction markets and citing insider trading and national security concerns. They referenced high-profile sensitive trading scandals, including bets on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and recent attacks on Iran.
Operating Offshore and Its Implications
Since restricting U.S. users in 2022, Polymarket has operated offshore and continued to grow.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election became a global benchmark for political forecasting, and by October 2025, the platform processed over $3 billion in monthly trades.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to $2 billion in investment that same month and valued Polymarket at $8 billion.
Offshore status brings its own problems, including CFTC Regulation 40.1, which prohibits U.S.-registered exchanges from listing contracts on war, terrorism, or assassination. The offshore platform operates without those restrictions.
Polymarket facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in trades connected to conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran, an activity that would face stricter limitations under a regulated U.S. exchange.
The platform also relies on a blockchain-based infrastructure, which creates challenges for applying traditional anti-money laundering and know-your-customer (KYC) controls and has drawn scrutiny from regulators.
One of the most damaging headlines for Polymarket arrived last week when federal authorities charged a U.S. Army soldier with using classified military intelligence to earn more than $400,000 on the Maduro capture using a VPN. The case shows how easily U.S. users can circumvent the ban and how limited oversight remains afterward.
Politics and Capital Enter the Market
The push to re-enter the U.S. market comes as prediction markets attract growing political and institutional attention. Donald Trump Jr. holds advisory roles with both Polymarket and Kalshi and invested in the sector through 1789 Capital, while Trump Media & Technology Group has indicated plans to launch a competing platform.
At the same time, major financial players have begun pouring capital into the space, even as its legal status remains unsettled. However, the sector’s trajectory may depend less on investment and more on how courts and lawmakers ultimately define prediction markets.
How Polymarket Got Locked Out
Shayne Coplan launched Polymarket in June 2020 at age 22. He built the model on Polygon’s blockchain around a simple idea: let users buy shares on whether a future event resolves as “yes” or “no.” The platform quickly gained prominence ahead of the 2020 presidential election, reaching almost $26 million in monthly trading volume. However, the platform lacked regulatory authorization.
The CFTC launched an investigation in late 2021 and settled the case by January 2022. The agency found that Polymarket had operated as an unregistered facility for event-based binary options contracts since its launch, in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. Regulators imposed a $1.4 million civil penalty and barred the platform from accepting U.S. customers.
A Decision With Industry-Wide Implications
Bringing the main exchange back to the U.S. would open access to millions of American users, allow the company to compete on equal terms, and gain regulatory credibility.
More broadly, the decision could help determine whether blockchain-based prediction markets can operate within the U.S. regulatory framework, as courts and regulators continue to debate the boundary between derivatives trading and gambling.
It remains unclear whether the CFTC will approve the move, but the industry will watch closely in the coming weeks for signals from Selig.
With the agency currently operating without a full slate of commissioners, any decision could carry added weight — and may ultimately be revisited once the commission is fully staffed, leaving the sector’s long-term regulatory direction unresolved.
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