The World Cup kicks off, the CFTC addresses a prediction markets problem, longshot bettors cash in on the Knicks, and DraftKings and FanDuel end up on different sides of this week’s ledger.
Bets are rolling into sportsbooks and prediction markets as World Cup 2026 kicks off — and a lot of them. In fact, the biggest-ever version of the tournament, with 48 teams competing across three countries, is projected to be the biggest gambling event of all time, too.
Prediction markets, of course, are driving a significant amount of the volume, whether it’s by making their products available in all 50 states — as DraftKings is eager to promote — attracting a new set of fintech-savvy customers, or presenting a viable alternative to bettors.
The momentum the exchanges have built won’t be slowed anytime soon by the CFTC, whose proposed rules afford prediction markets plenty of latitude to continue offering sports event contracts.
Here’s a look back at these developments and more highs and lows from the week that was in the gambling industry:
Bingo: World Cup Wagering Will be Massive
The $50 billion figure projected by Macquarie Capital would exceed the $35 billion wagered on the 2022 tournament and mark the most money ever bet on a sporting event. More games – 104 this year across the US, Mexico and Canada vs. 64 four years ago in Qatar – provides a huge boost, as does the expansion of the US market, where, when factoring in prediction markets, 100% of the population now has access to sports wagering. The event’s impact on the industry is expected to go far beyond its five weeks, as operators are looking at the World Cup as a prime customer-acquisition opportunity. “The long-term value proposition is driven by expanding the customer base, brand awareness, and cross-sell into higher-margin products like iCasino,” according to Macquarie’s report.
Bingo: War, Assassination, Terrorism Off Limits for Prediction Markets?
The CFTC isn’t taking a lot of heat off itself with the release of proposed rules that, to the surprise of no one, do little to reign in prediction markets from offering sports event contracts as they see fit. But at least the 267-page document suggests it’s probably not okay to gamble on issues of national security. The Commission, the notice states, may determine contracts involving unlawful activity, terrorism, assassination, war and gaming “to be contrary to the public interest.” Sports gambling apparently does not meet the Mike Selig-chaired CFTC’s definition of gaming, but we pretty much already knew that, and while prediction markets are fraught with problems, perhaps the one pertaining to insidious insider trading on international violence will no longer be one of them.
Bust: Judge Reinstates Sorsby, Texas Tech Digs In
Despite NCAA rules that leave little room for interpretation, Judge Ken Curry granted Brendan Sorsby a temporary injunction that allows him to play quarterback for Texas Tech this season, even though the student-athlete gambled on Indiana when he was a member of the team in 2022. The ruling shocked the college sports and gambling communities, some legal observers even speculating about favoritism by the Texas-based judge. Opposition to the decision has been nearly unanimous, with several Big 12 ADs floating the idea of boycotting the Red Raiders. Texas Tech, of course, is all for the decision, but the school’s contention that “the integrity of sport matters. So does the integrity of how we treat a 22-year-old who sought help” rings disingenuous.
Bingo: DraftKings Stock Rises on Prediction Market Numbers
“I don’t know if the Spurs or the Knicks will win this NBA championship. But I know who’s going to win in prediction markets,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins boldly proclaims. We’re not sure about all that, but the market is liking what it’s seeing. The DFS, sportsbook and now prediction market operator reported $1.3B in “annualized consumer volume” and $3.1B in “annualized total volume” on its new exchange product, 24% and +34% month-over-month increases respectively, and its stock price jumped from $24.70 at Monday’s open to as high as $30.06 on Thursday. We know we have to be careful in how we interpret “annualized volume”, and these numbers are a drop in Kalshi’s bucket, but there are signs that DraftKings’ late-but-necessary move into prediction markets is starting to pay off.
Bust: FanDuel Lays Off Staff, Adds Prediction Market Partner
The week wasn’t as bright for FanDuel, DraftKings’ key rival. Continuing a trend around the gambling industry nobody wants to see, the company laid off “a few hundred” of its 5,000 employees, its third reduction in headcount in less than a year, Front Office Sports reported. Additionally, a new deal with Crypto.com is an indication that its prediction market partnership with CME Group has so far not been fruitful.
Bingo: Hopeful Bettors Cash on Historic Knicks Comeback
Sometimes, you gotta believe, even when your team is down 29 points in the third quarter, and plenty of Knicks backers swung for fences (sorry, not sorry for mixing metaphors) with the team in desperation mode on Wednesday night. Trailing 81-52 at home in Game 4 against the Spurs, New York was priced at +2200 on the live moneyline at DraftKings. Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told the New York Times that in-game handle was “huge”, acknowledging the operator got a bit banged up by the improbable result. So did Susquehanna, a primary liquidity provider on Kalshi, as the trading firm’s “prediction market desk took its biggest sports loss making markets,” according to InGame. While not many tears will be shed for either behemoth, cheers to the believers who regaled monetarily in the largest comeback in NBA Finals history.
The post World Cup Wagering, CFTC’s Rulemaking, Knicks’ Comeback Highlight This Week’s Gambling Industry Bingos & Busts appeared first on Gambling Insider.
