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We’re about to see the first ever World Cup halftime performance, and it’s expected to be on par with what we’d usually see at the Super Bowl. This year, the US is hosting its second World Cup, and speculation is building on exactly how the host nation is going to change things up.
In May, it was announced that the halftime show, which takes place at the MetLife Stadium, NJ, would be co-headlined by Madonna, Shakira and BTS. We also know it’s going to be co-curated by Coldplay’s Chris Martin and broadcast live as part of the final on July 19. And we’ve been told it’ll feature characters from Sesame Street and The Muppets, for younger viewers.
The identity of some of the other performers taking to the pitch is still shrouded in secrecy, but prediction markets could give us a clue as to what else is about to happen. On Kalshi, traders are putting money on a huge selection of different names, but there are two that are rising far above the rest.
Key Takeaways:
- Coldplay leads: Frontman Chris Martin is co-curator of the show and has ties to event co-producers Global Citizen. Coldplay is the current favorite at 60¢.
- Bieber closing the gap: Justin Bieber is hot on Coldplay’s heels, with a ‘Yes’ price of 40¢. We’ve heard endless rumors of a star-studded Canadian representation.
- Longshot collapse: Early hip-hop favorite Drake has seen his price plummet recently, he’s down to just a 12% chance as money moves elsewhere.
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The opening matches kick off this week across North America, and the battle is on between British rock royalty and a Canadian pop icon. Who’s it going to be? Let’s analyze the board.
Coldplay vs. Bieber: Our World Cup Final Top Contenders
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Nearly all of the liquidity on the world cup performer market is concentrated on two big names at the moment.
There are over 40 artists still on the board, but the crowd is treating it as a choice between Coldplay and Justin Bieber.
We can expect considerable volatility in the coming days, though, so keep an eye out for upcoming announcements from FIFA or its entertainment partners. The current prices just might be the calm before the storm.
World Cup Final Performer Value Picks: Where is the Money Moving?
On prediction markets, finding value isn’t just about backing the absolute favorite. It’s also about identifying any picks where the general crowd might have either overreacted, underpriced an option, or created a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
There are a few names on this board that could be great value if the favorites don’t win. Here are some options to consider.
Nicki Minaj | ‘Yes’ 38¢
The market had been pricing Nicki Minaj as a pure longshot, at just 13¢. But on June 12 her price rose to 38¢, as traders begin to think more seriously about her massive international appeal.
There’s also the fact that Minaj has clearly shown her willingness to participate in major sports anthems, like the official anthem for the FIFA Fan Festival in 2022, Tukoh Taka.
If Minaj is announced as a guest feature in a larger medley, this contract hits a full 100% payout, so even at 38¢ it’s a great value play.
Justin Bieber | ‘No’ 75¢
Bieber’s name carries incredible weight, and of course the fact that he is Canadian could make him a more likely pick. But his recent live performance consistency does put a bit of a question mark over whether FIFA would choose him for a stage as big as this.
Currently, ‘No’ shares for Justin Bieber are just 75¢, which is good value considering you’re then effectively backing every other name on the board.
Drake | ‘Yes’ 20¢
Drake is another Canadian star who has what it takes to steal the show here. He broke records recently with his triple album drop, and he’s definitely relevant right now.
Drake’s price dropped from 48¢ to 20¢ in recent days, amid rumors he’d fallen out of favor with the organizers. But these have since been proven to be false, so he could still be in the running in this market, as well as Spotify’s number one song for June.
It is worth noting, though, that Drake has never performed at the Super Bowl, despite reportedly being asked to several times. The implied probability is low, but that means a ‘Yes’ for Drake is an absolute bargain at the moment.
Bad Bunny | ‘Yes’ 9¢
Bad Bunny has been announced as one of the headline acts for the opening performance, but his ‘Yes’ price for the final is low. Traders don’t expect him to appear in both shows, but it’s not impossible given his massive profile and the fact that he’s been filling stadiums all over the world lately.
The Super Bowl halftime show star’s stadium-ready catalog is exactly what FIFA will be looking for. Don’t forget that this market’s flexible medley rules award a ‘Yes’ payout for a single guest-verse appearance. Co-headliner Shakira could easily call him out for a surprise collaboration!
Oasis | ‘No’ 98¢
They recently reunited and went on to dominate global stadium touring schedules, and in the past few weeks the Gallagher brothers had even been talked about as potential World Cup performers.
Organizers were said to have been keen to leverage the band’s current momentum, but the current 6% implied probability means traders are skeptical. And they’re right to be so, because Noel’s made his feelings very clear on this one. He’s said that not only will he not be taking part, he won’t even be watching. Ouch.
That’s as safe a ‘No’ as you’re going to get.
Timing the Leak: Why Volatility is Spiking Ahead of the Announcement
The dynamics of this market are tied to what FIFA is currently doing with the development of its modern entertainment identity. It’s a work in progress, and it’s going to be quite different from the Super Bowl shows, which are currently curated by Roc Nation.
The World Cup is co-produced by Global Citizen, and that’s why Coldplay’s ‘Yes’ is so high at the moment. Prices for Coldplay contracts shot up when Chris Martin was named a lead curator for the tournament’s broader musical layout.
Prediction markets always react swiftly to changes in narrative like this, so it’s not surprising that prices rose when Martin’s influence over the event was revealed. Coldplay is now the dominant name in the market, with a 51% implied probability despite competition from some huge names.
The market is reacting to Chris Martin’s link with the show, not just pure star power. Whether that turns out to be an overreaction remains to be seen.
Strategic Considerations for Traders
Navigating a fast-moving entertainment market like this requires traders to act swiftly and stay ahead of breaking news stories.
To protect capital and profit from changes in narrative, traders need to know what’s about to happen before the rest of the market does. Here are a few tips on how to do just that.
- Watch the News Cycle: Monitor verified entertainment insiders on X (formerly Twitter) and early leaks from Billboard or Variety. Official FIFA press releases have been known to leak early on social media.
- The Flip Strategy: You don’t have to hold onto your contracts until the final is upon us. If you buy a dark horse like Sabrina Carpenter at 12¢ and a rumor causes her price to spike to 40¢, you have the option to sell immediately and lock in profits.
- Check Secondary Markets: World Cup markets react to changes in related markets. Keep an eye on our World Cup picks for the latest.
- Managing Volatility: This market is binary, so contracts will convert to either 100¢ or 0¢ on resolution. Manage contracts carefully to make sure that any unexpected joint performance announcements can’t wipe out your portfolio.
How to Trade the World Cup Halftime Show on Kalshi
It’s easy to get skin in the game on Kalshi. Follow the steps below to set up your account and start trading world cup final performers before the main event.
- Account Setup: Sign up on the Kalshi platform, complete the swift identity verification and fund your account via ACH, wire or card.
- Navigate: Head to the search bar and type “World Cup Halftime” or filter via the “Culture/Entertainment” tab.
- Execute: Choose your target artist, select either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, input your desired number of contracts, and click buy.
- Monitor: Track your portfolio in real time. You retain full control to sell your shares back to the market at any moment before the official FIFA announcement resolves the contract.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
