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Lionel Messi begins another World Cup journey tonight as Argentina opens its title defense against Algeria.
The Argentine legend remains the heartbeat of Lionel Scaloni’s attack, and while his role has evolved with age, his influence in the final third has not disappeared. Messi is still Argentina’s primary creator, a dangerous finisher around the box, and the most likely penalty taker if La Albiceleste win one.
That makes his player props a major focus for traders today, especially with sportsbooks hanging Messi’s anytime goalscorer odds around plus money.
Below, we break down the latest Lionel Messi odds, player props, and our best World Cup picks for Argentina vs. Algeria on Tuesday, June 16.
Lionel Messi odds vs Algeria
| Market |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Messi to score | 46% | +117 |
| Messi to assist | 32% | +213 |
| Messi to score or assist | 60% | -150 |
Lionel Messi anytime goal scorer vs Algeria
Messi may no longer be the relentless shot-volume monster he was at his peak, but this is still a strong matchup for his goal-scoring profile.
Argentina should control possession, spend long stretches in Algeria’s half, and generate enough pressure to give Messi touches in and around the box.
The penalty angle is also important. Argentina are expected to have more of the ball and more territory, which naturally raises the chances of Algeria being forced into last-ditch defending. If Argentina win a penalty, Messi will be the man standing over it.
Messi anytime goal scorer odds analysis
A +117 price implies Messi has roughly a 46% chance to score.
That number is not cheap, but it is playable. Messi is not being priced like a long shot because the market understands his role. He is still the face of Argentina’s attack, still heavily involved in dead-ball situations, and still one of the players most likely to decide a tight match.
The concern is minutes. At this stage of his career, Argentina may manage Messi more carefully if the game gets out of hand. That is why the anytime scorer price is preferable to chasing 2+ goals or a shots-based over at a bad number.
If you can get Messi to score at plus money, that is the cleanest angle.
Other Lionel Messi props to consider
Messi assist
This market fits Messi’s current role, but the price has to be right.
Messi is still Argentina’s best passer in the final third, and if Algeria sit deep, he could be the player picking the final ball into the box. The issue is that assists require someone else to finish the chance, which adds another layer of variance.
Lean: Playable down to +150.
Messi to score or assist
This market combines the strongest parts of Messi’s profile into a single wager.
Even at 39 years old, Messi remains Argentina’s most important attacking player. He is still the team’s primary creator, a dangerous finisher in and around the box, and the likely penalty taker whenever La Albiceleste are awarded a spot kick. That gives traders multiple ways to cash this ticket.
Unlike a pure goalscorer prediction, Messi doesn’t need to find the back of the net himself. An inch-perfect through ball to Lautaro Martinez or Julian Alvarez counts just the same. With Argentina expected to control possession and create plenty of chances against Algeria, backing Messi to record a goal contribution offers a safer path than relying solely on a goal.
Lean: Playable up to -160.
Argentina vs Algeria odds
Argentina enter this match as the defending World Cup champions and should have the cleaner attacking chances.
Scaloni’s side are not built solely around Messi anymore, which is a good thing for Argentina but a slight complication for prop traders. Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and others can all take touches in dangerous areas.
Still, Messi remains the player Algeria will fear most when Argentina settle into possession. If the match becomes one-way traffic, he should have chances to either score himself or create for others.
That keeps his anytime goalscorer prop firmly in play.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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