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Monday’s World Cup knockout slate wraps up with what should be one of the best matches of the Round of 32.
Netherlands vs. Morocco feels like it has everything you’d want from a World Cup knockout game. Two teams in good form, plenty of attacking talent, and a matchup that could be decided by one big moment.
The Dutch are deserved favorites, but Morocco have already proven they belong after an excellent group stage showing.
Before making your Netherlands vs Morocco predictions and World Cup picks for tonight’s nightcap, let’s break down the latest World Cup odds for June 29.
Who will win Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands
Bet now: <<-150>>
My pick to advance to the Round of 16 is the Netherlands.
Morocco are more than capable of making this uncomfortable, but I still think the Dutch are the better team.
They’ve got more quality across the pitch and more ways to create chances. If Morocco take away one option, the Netherlands have enough talent to attack a different way. That’s a big advantage in a knockout match where games rarely go according to plan.
Morocco will defend well and look to hit on the counter through players like Brahim Diaz and Achraf Hakimi. They’ll have their moments, but I don’t think they’ll create enough of them.
I expect the Netherlands to control possession, spend more time in the attacking third, and eventually find the breakthrough. It may not be pretty, but I like the Dutch to move on.
Who will score in Netherlands vs Morocco?
Kalshi’s goal scorer market gives us a useful snapshot of where the scoring threat is expected to come from, and the top of the board is exactly where I want to focus.
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Cody Gakpo |
26% | +285 |
| Brian Brobbey |
25% | +300 |
 Brahim Diaz |
17% | +488 |
| Tijjani Reijnders |
14% | +614 |
| Bilal El Khannouss |
11% | +809 |
| Achraf Hakimi |
10% | +900 |
| Denzel Dumfries |
8% | +1150 |
| Neil El Aynaoui |
8% | +1150 |
| Virgil van Dijk |
7% | +1329 |
| Ryan Gravenberch |
6% | +1567 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi |
5% | +1900 |
| Frenkie de Jong |
5% | +1900 |
| Chadi Riad |
4% | +2400 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke |
3% | +3233 |
Odds as of 6-29. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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Netherlands vs Morocco goal scorer predictions
Cody Gakpo to score
Gakpo is my favorite Netherlands goal scorer look because his role fits this matchup.
Morocco’s defensive shape should force the Dutch to be patient, but Gakpo does not need the match to become wide open to be dangerous. He can attack the back post, cut inside onto his stronger foot, or finish moves that begin with Dutch pressure down the opposite flank.
He is also one of the few Netherlands attackers who can turn a half-chance into a goal without the entire attack functioning perfectly. In a tight knockout game, that matters.
Brian Brobbey to score
Brobbey is the more physical Netherlands scoring angle.
If Morocco defend deep and force the Dutch wide, Brobbey’s box presence becomes a major factor. He can occupy center backs, attack crosses, and deliver through the air in a match where clear chances may be limited.
The concern is that he needs service, but the price reflects that. If the Netherlands spend most of the match pushing Morocco toward their own goal, Brobbey should get at least one high-leverage look inside the area.
Brahim Diaz to score
If Morocco score, Diaz is the player I want attached to it.
He is Morocco’s best between-the-lines attacker and the one player most capable of turning a broken transition into a real chance. The Netherlands will likely control possession, but that also means there should be space behind the Dutch midfield when Morocco win the ball back.
Diaz does not need huge volume to be dangerous. He needs one clean carry, one quick combination, or one defender stepping late. At 17%, he is the Morocco scorer who makes the most sense.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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