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The United States enters the 2026 World Cup with legitimate expectations of reaching the knockout stage and potentially winning Group D.
While Turkey’s addition to the group creates a tougher path than many anticipated, the Americans still possess the talent and depth to finish atop a group that also includes Paraguay and New Zealand.
Before making your World Cup picks, let’s break down the latest USA World Cup odds, Group D outlook, and where the betting value lies ahead of the tournament.
United States World Cup odds 2026
| Market |  |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| To win the World Cup | 1.6¢ | +6150 |
| To reach the World Cup Final | 5¢ | +1900 |
| To win Group D | 40¢ | +150 |
| To qualify from Group D | 83¢ | -488 |
Odds as of 6-8. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
The United States sits outside the top tier of World Cup odds, but Kalshi’s market still views the Americans as a strong Group D contender. The U.S. is priced at 83% to advance and 40% to win the group, making the +150 equivalent on a first-place finish the most interesting angle on the board.
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United States vs Paraguay odds (June 13)
USA
ParaguayOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
The United States opens the World Cup on home soil and holds advantages across the pitch in both athleticism and attacking talent. With Christian Pulisic leading a deep group of attacking options, the Americans should create enough chances to break down Paraguay and start Group D with a crucial three points.
If you’re following the tournament throughout the month, don’t forget to enter Kalshi’s World Cup Contest for a chance to compete alongside fellow soccer fans.
United States World Cup schedule
- Friday, June 12 vs. Paraguay (Los Angeles Stadium)
- Friday, June 19 vs. Australia (Seattle Stadium)
- Thursday, June 25 vs. Turkey (Los Angeles Stadium)
More 2026 World Cup Betting insights
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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