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Uruguay opens its World Cup campaign on tonight against Saudi Arabia, with the two-time champions expected to challenge for top spot in Group H.
The South Americans hold a significant edge in talent and experience, and my Uruguay vs. Saudi Arabia predictions expect that gap to show on the scoreboard.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Monday, June 15, with a 6 p.m. kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium.
TOP PICK
Who will win Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia: Uruguay -1.5 (+138)
With the enigmatic Marcelo Bielsa as their manager, you cannot be sure exactly what you’ll get from Uruguay. They are -212 favorites to secure victory, and that judgment is fair: a combined Uruguay-Saudi Arabia line-up would have at least nine Uruguayans in it, which tells you how this fixture should play out.
Uruguay will win the game in midfield. Their predicted starting trio – Rodrigo Bentancur (Tottenham Hotspur), Manuel Ugarte (Manchester United), and Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) – will dominate the ball and have the power and drive to launch attacks.
Saudi Arabia will play on the counter-attack. Whether they can do so effectively is open to question: as a right-wing-back, Saud Abdulhamid was outstanding on the break for French Ligue 1 runners-up Lens this season, but he will be compelled to focus on defensive duties as a conventional right-back in Saudi Arabia’s 4-2-3-1.
Such tactical disjointedness may weaken the dog’s chances under manager Georgios Donis, still getting to know his players after being appointed just two months ago.
Bielsa will insist Uruguay chase a big rather than a narrow win. I’m backing his team to triumph by a couple of goals, and would play it up to +115.
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 (-117)
For several reasons, a low-scoring encounter is the smart selection.
Fifteen of Uruguay’s last 20 fixtures have featured two goals or fewer, with the average goals-per-game count a measly 1.7 across those matches.
Looking through the Uruguay lineup, it is hard to see where the goals will come from. Star striker Darwin Nunez has spent much of 2026 sitting on the sidelines after falling out of favor at Al-Hilal.
The absence through injury of playmaker Giorgian de Arrascaeta – see below – robs the team not only of their primary creative force in central areas but also of the only player in the squad, other than Nunez, who has hit double figures in national team colors (the duo has 13 goals each).
Saudi Arabia would be overjoyed to draw 0-0, and will play with that objective in mind. Even if they go behind, they will attack intermittently rather than incessantly, as they will fear conceding the second goal that would kill the game.
Thunderstorm stoppages may occur. Should they do so, they would disrupt the game’s rhythm, reducing the likelihood of goals.
I’m backing Under 2.5 Goals, and would play this up to -125.
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia goal scorer
Federico Valverde (+225)
Real Madrid midfielder Federico Valverde will be key if Uruguay is to go deep in the World Cup bracket. The 27-year-old has only nine goals in 73 Uruguay appearances and a moderate overall scoring record in La Liga.
In recent months, however, he has become more prolific: he netted Uruguay’s final pre-tournament goal, in their 1-1 draw vs England at Wembley in March, and scored seven times in his final 12 La Liga and Champions League appearances of 2025-26.
In a game where they will dominate possession, Uruguay’s players will need to break the lines to get into advanced positions. Valverde is the most likely of their midfielders to convert attacking raids into a goal.
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia projected lineup
Saudi Arabia (3-4-2-1): Alowais; Abdulhamid, Alamri, Altambakti, Alharbi; Alkhaibari, Aldawsari; Alshamat, Aljuwayr, Aldawsari; Albrikan
Uruguay (4-3-3): Rochet; Varela, Cáceres, Olivera, Vina; Ugarte, Valverde, Bentancur; Canobbio, Nunez, Araujo
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia injuries
Saudi Arabia: Al Aqidi GK (Doubtful).
Uruguay: Araujo CB (Out), De Arrascaeta AM (Out), Gimenez CB (Doubtful), Piquierez LB (Doubtful).
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia weather
The temperature will be 28°C to 30°C (82°F to 86°F). Thunderstorms are forecast, which means the game may be interrupted.
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia odds
 Saudi Arabia |
 Uruguay |
|
|---|---|---|
| +733 | Moneyline | -212 |
| +376 | Draw | +376 |
| Over 2.5 (+113) | Total | Under 2.5 (-117) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, June 15, 2026 |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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