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Turkey’s World Cup return after a 24-year absence comes with the “dark horse” label, and they’ll look to make a winning start when they take on Australia in Vancouver on Saturday night.
Building on a solid effort at Euro 2024 and consistent form this year, Vincenzo Montella’s men arrive at this tournament with a shot at topping Group D, and my Turkey vs Australia predictions expect the Crescent Stars to grind out a victory here.
Check out my free World Cup picks ahead of this June 13 battle.
TOP PICK
Who will win Turkey vs Australia: Turkey (-147)
Turkey’s exciting young core enters Group D action on the heels of seven victories in their past eight games, and they could be a sneaky team to advance in your World Cup bracket pool.
While not at the top of the World Cup odds, Vincenzo Montella’s men are worthy favourites on Saturday night — despite fitness doubts over Kenan Yildiz and Ferdi Kadıoglu — and Arda Guler’s return from injury provides midfield playmaking and set-piece excellence.
That Turkish spark is in contrast to Australia’s blunt attack outside of exciting young gun Nestory Irankunda. The Aussies qualified with gritty wins over Japan and Saudi Arabia, but they’ve only won two of their last seven games (all friendlies), and were shut out in three of those outings.
Their stubborn, defensive approach under Tony Popovic — who signed an extension as Socceroos boss this week — can only hold up for so long against Turkey’s more polished midfield, led by clever interchanges between Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu.
If Yildiz is fit enough to feature here, Montella will have even more cards to play to unlock a cagey matchup, and performances in qualifying suggest this Turkish squad brings a calmer demeanour than previous versions.
I wouldn’t bet this much higher than -150, but the Turkey -1.5 odds are worth a look too.
Turkey vs Australia Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 (-125)
If the Aussies get what they want, this will be a tight battle with few chances.
They’ve only scored more than one goal in one of the last eight outings, and their 1-0 loss to Mexico in a pre-tournament friendly could be indicative of what we see at the weekend, with Australia finishing with just 40% of the possession that day.
That puts the onus on Turkey to find a way through Australia’s defensive block, which will regularly shift into a 5-4-1 shape to slow the tempo.
The potential absences of Yildiz and Ferdi Kadıoglu would also limit some of the Turkish swagger down the left wing, meaning Montella’s men may see plenty of the ball without making major inroads.
I’m still wagering on Guler and the Turkish attack to find a way through, but there won’t be much room to operate around the Aussie box — and Turkey scraped 1-0 wins in both of their playoff games to qualify for the World Cup.
This is playable to -135.
Turkey vs Australia projected lineup
Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Elmali; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Guler, Kokcu, Yilmaz; Gul.
Australia (3-4-2-1): Ryan; Circati, Souttar, Herrington; Irvine, Italiano, Metcalfe, Bos; O’Neill, Leckie; Toure.
Turkey vs Australia injuries
Turkey: Kenan Yildiz LW (Questionable), Ferdi Kadıoglu W (Questionable).
Australia: No key injuries to report.
Turkey vs Australia weather
Dome.
Turkey vs Australia odds
 Turkey |
 Australia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -138 | Moneyline | +426 |
| +285 | Draw | +285 |
| Over 2.5 (+108) | Total | Under 2.5 (-112) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Turkey vs Australia
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date | Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
| Time | 12 a.m, ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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