BRUSSELS — U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to pull U.S. troops out of Germany — but turning a social media edict into an actual withdrawal is far more complicated.
Any American withdrawal would mean sinking billions of dollars into a yearslong process. Then there’s the usefulness of German bases to American global power projection. Without them, U.S. forces would face difficulties in prosecuting the war against Iran.
“Such a withdrawal would require long-term planning and entail significant costs,” said German liberal lawmaker Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who chairs the European Parliament’s Defense Committee. “The United States relies on this location, particularly with regard to operations in the Middle East.”
Trump lashed out at Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz needled the president over the war against Iran.
“The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time,” Trump wrote overnight Thursday, later adding: “The Chancellor of Germany should spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine … and fixing his broken Country.”
Merz on Thursday avoided direct reference to Trump’s threats. “Our compass remains clearly set on a strong NATO and a reliable transatlantic partnership,” he said.
The latest scrap underscores Trump’s enduring frustration at his European partners for largely dodging the Iran conflict more than two more months after he first ordered airstrikes.
The president has also threatened other countries not toeing the line on Iran — including the U.K. and Spain — but so far that hasn’t led to any changes in their military relationship.
The U.S. has been reconsidering the scale of its presence in Europe since before Trump’s presidency, but has so far indicated it would not carry out major drawdowns, instead calling on the continent to shoulder more of its own defense and pivoting toward the Asia-Pacific.
“If they look at where they might have the best use of their bases in Europe … I don’t think it’s irrational,” said one senior NATO diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “If it’s done as a vengeful wish to punish allies … then it wouldn’t be wise.”
But any sudden pullout could undermine Europe’s defenses against Russia at a time when there are growing fears Moscow could attack a European country by the end of the decade.
“It would … weaken the deterrence posture of NATO as it would signal to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that the Americans care less every day, that Europe is increasingly exposed,” said Gerlinde Niehus, a security expert and former longtime NATO official.
Words, not deeds
Despite Trump’s threat, removing soldiers won’t be easy.
Roughly 36,000 U.S. soldiers are currently stationed in Germany, around half of Washington’s total military presence in Europe. The country is home to dozens of American installations including the top U.S. commands for Europe and Africa, and also has critical military assets including B-61 nuclear bombs.
During his first term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of 12,000 U.S. troops from Germany, but he was not able to complete it before President Joe Biden took office.
In theory, “there are no significant legal or political obstacles” for him to try pull troops out of Germany again, said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, given the “very limited leverage” U.S. Congress has over military matters.
The only concrete limit is a 2025 law that prevents the president from leaving fewer than 76,000 troops in Europe. With up to 85,000 soldiers on the continent, that gives him a legal maximum of 9,000 soldiers.
But even doing that would take “four years at the minimum” and could cost “hundreds of billions” of dollars when accounting for indirect expenses too, said retired Gen. Mark Hertling, the former commanding officer of U.S. Army Europe who helped manage a significant American drawdown between 2003 and 2011.
That doesn’t account for broader complexities and costs, he argued, including shifting thousands of soldiers’ families, firing local German workers, closing down hospitals and leaving newly upgraded bases abandoned.
A rapid pullback would also be “extremely damaging” for the U.S. military campaign in Iran, he added, given bases like Ramstein play a significant role in coordinating drone attacks and shipping personnel and equipment to the Middle East.
There are also other practical obstacles for removing soldiers. “Where would they go? You need infrastructure, you need bases, you need housing — that doesn’t just exist somewhere else waiting,” said Claudia Major, senior vice president for transatlantic security at the German Marshall Fund.
For now, Germany isn’t worried.
Berlin is “prepared” for a potential U.S. drawdown and was discussing the issue “closely and in a spirit of trust in all NATO bodies,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Thursday.
“Despite some impulsive statements by the president, I still have a basic level of trust in transatlantic relations,” said Christoph Schmid, a lawmaker for Germany’s governing Social Democratic party. “You have to measure the U.S. administration more by its actions than by its words.”
