Trump tariff pause — fade the 71%

Crowd is overconfident at 71%. Political incentive doesn’t support the timeline. The threat is the leverage.

Betting The Signal
by
2 weeks ago 0 18

Polymarket has the Trump tariff pause at 71% YES. That is the crowd getting ahead of itself.

Political incentive does not support the timeline. The threat is the leverage — remove the threat and you remove the only card Trump has at the negotiating table. 71% is the wrong number.

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