Glen Dross

The Signal. The Betting Edge. The View from Glen Dross.

3 months ago 0 90

Iran premium hasn't priced the downside scenario yet. Worth watching WTI $78 as the tell.

3 months ago 0 89

Crowd is overconfident at 71%. Political incentive doesn't support the timeline. The threat is the leverage.

3 months ago 0 96

Polymarket has US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 at Yes 53%. Hegseth is moving assets. Trump prefers ...

3 months ago 0 86

Legacy media's Iran coverage is a full cycle behind the tape. If you're reading it there first, you're ...

3 months ago 0 88

No historical precedent for this level of US-EU divergence resolving cleanly in under 6 months. The crowd is ...

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