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After tearing through the playoffs, Karl-Anthony Towns completely went cold during the Knicks’ Game 3 loss to San Antonio.
Don’t expect that slump to carry over, though.
Our Spurs vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for tonight’s Game 4 action are banking on Towns to assert his dominance and turn the tide for New York.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win & +775 SGP!
Spurs vs Knicks Game 4 prediction today
Who will win Spurs vs Knicks Game 4?
Knicks: You can view the Knicks’ Game 3 loss two ways. First, after winning 13 straight postseason games New York is ripe for regression and this is a sign of things to come. Or, finally losing a game – especially in the extreme setting of Game 3 – takes the pressure off the Knicks to be perfect.
I’m subscribing to the latter, considering a lot of New York’s Game 3 wounds were self-inflicted. Turnover troubles and cold 3-point shooting are like a Mentos and Coca-Cola for transition attacks like the Spurs.
The Knicks will tighten the bolts, control tempo, and get back in the win column at home on Wednesday.
Spurs vs Knicks best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-112)
New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns couldn’t get going in Game 3.
The San Antonio Spurs mixed up their defense, sending guard Stephon Castle at the 7-footer. While that threw off Towns, he was also passive cutting, posting, and attacking (when he wasn’t passed up in pick-and-pop spots).
Even so I recall a couple of possessions where the veer-back switch was either nonexistent or late, windows the Knicks missed on KAT PnPs. Part of why KAT wasnt in rhythm tonight is because the team didn’t particularly focus on getting him into a rhythm.
Would expect this to be… https://t.co/Rr5BVJOVTh
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) June 9, 2026
Coach Mike Brown singled out his lack of activity, and I expect the Knicks to get KAT early touches in Game 4.
He’s thrived as a passer against smaller defenders, and my projections call for 19+ points, 12+ rebounds, and 3+ assists, with a higher ceiling on dimes. That should have Over 32.5 PAR priced around -130.
COVERS INTEL: Towns’ usage sunk to 14% in Game 3 — a dip from his 19.9% rate in the opening two games of the finals and his 20.3% usage in the playoffs. The last time his usage dropped this low, KAT came back the following contest with 19 points, 14 rebounds, and three assists over just 26 minutes in Game 4 of the ECF.Spurs vs Knicks Game 4 same-game parlay
The Knicks may not get to use the brooms in the NBA Finals, but they can get out the mops and clean up their messy play after a turnover-plagued Game 3 loss.
New York will settle down after an emotionally charged night in MSG, not throwing gas on the Spurs’ transition fires with giveaways and long misses.
I also see the officials trying to balance out some of the foul shooting discrepancies from Game 3 (a squeaky coach gets the grease), which can mean more trips to the stripe for New York or the refs swallowing their whistles.
Unders have been the right side of most NBA Finals games in recent years, cashing in at better than 60% since 2005-06. Game 3 finished Over the total, thanks in part to San Antonio scoring 25 points from the foul line with the clock stopped.
New York cleans up the turnovers and brings this series back to the half-court style we saw in the opening two games, keeping this final score short of the 216.5 O/U.
Karl-Anthony Towns seemed to have left his groove in Texas. He was flat in Game 3, lacking aggression in the offense — with or without the basketball.
The Spurs are sending 6-foot-6 Stephon Castle at the big man, and we saw KAT exploit smaller defenders throughout the playoffs, especially with his passing from the top of the key. My projections call for 35 PRA for Game 4, with some models calling for as many as 41+ combined stats.
Spurs vs Knicks SGP
- Knicks moneyline
- Under 216.5
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 32.5 PRA
Our “from downtown” SGP: The KAT Came Back
San Antonio’s defensive switches may have caught Towns off guard in Game 3 but opportunities will be abundant with New York looking to jumpstart KAT early on in Game 4. His passing and rebounding stats should surge against small defenders and his scoring projections all sit north of 17 points, with a ceiling of 22+ points on Wednesday.
Spurs vs Knicks SGP
- Knicks -1.5
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 16.5 points
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 assists
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds
Spurs vs Knicks odds for Game 4 today
- Spread: Spurs +1.5 | Knicks -1.5
- Moneyline: Spurs +105 | Knicks -125
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 | Under 216.5
Spurs vs Knicks betting trend to know
Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 20.14 points when failing to score 15 or more points in the previous game this season, including the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Knicks.
How to watch Spurs vs Knicks Game 4
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, June 10, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC, ESPN |
Spurs vs Knicks latest injuries
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