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Before the tournament started, you’d have expected both Spain and Uruguay to be coming into this match with the full six points, but neither has won both of their World Cup games.
The Spanish saw Lamine Yamal return to the starting lineup in their last game, and instantly, they looked better, which is why my Spain vs. Uruguay predictions expect Luis De La Fuente’s team to win by a strong margin.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Friday, June 26, with kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Who will win Spain vs Uruguay: Spain -1.5 (+140)
We’ve really seen the best and worst from Spain in this tournament. Their opening draw against Cape Verde showed a team that lacked creativity, which came as a surprise, as they struggled to break down Cape Verde’s low block and create high-value opportunities.
That was in part down to the absence of the injured duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, who are key to what Spain do down either flank. Only Yamal returned to the starting lineup in the next game, but he instantly changed the complexion of their playing style.
Spain aren’t blessed with pace, but in Yamal, they have both speed and dribbling ability. The way in which he can isolate defenders will be key against Uruguay. As will the overlapping runs of Pedro Porro. He’s an attacking fullback, and one who can create overloads, as well as put in an exceptional delivery into the box.
The Uruguayans have looked disorganised and lacked any real coherent attacking patterns of play. It’s hard to watch them play and understand exactly what their identity is, or what they’re trying to do. You feel like manager Marcelo Bielsa feels similarly, as evidenced by his team changes between games.
Play Spain -1.5 to +125.
TOp pick
Spain vs Uruguay Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-116)
I love the World Cup odds for Over 2.5 goals. We saw how dangerous Spain can be when they have Yamal on the field, and with the potential of Williams being added back into the lineup, that threat could only increase.
Spain would have wanted to enter this game with the group secured, but it isn’t, meaning they’ll have to put out their best team and attack. Given how much success Cape Verde had against Uruguay on the flanks, creating mismatches, it’s likely we see the same from Spain.
With just three points separating Spain in first and Saudi Arabia in fourth, there’s everything to play for, and Uruguay simply have to win, with a draw very unlikely to be enough to get them through. That means they’ll need to take risks offensively.
One thing we’ve seen throughout Bielsa’s career is that his teams are brave when attacking. They’ve scored three goals up until this point, and have the talent to score, but their openness will result in them also being hit on the counter.
Play this to -130.
Spain vs Uruguay projected lineup
Spain (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Zubimendi, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Williams
Uruguay (4-3-3): Rochet; Varela, Gimenez, R. Araujo, Olivera; Bentancur, Ugarte, Valverde; Pellistri, Nunez, M. Araujo
Spain vs Uruguay injuries
Spain: Nico Williams FWR (Questionable).
Uruguay: No key injuries to report.
Spain vs Uruguay weather
Temperatures will only be just over 70 degrees but there are risks of thunderstorms.
Spain vs Uruguay odds
 Spain |
 Uruguay |
|
|---|---|---|
| -200 | Moneyline | +550 |
| +320 | Draw | +320 |
| Over 2.5 (-116) | Total | Under 2.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Uruguay
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico |
| Date | Friday, June 26, 2026 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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