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Scottie Scheffler is, once again, the favorite by the U.S. Open odds. His 14% live win probability translates to odds of +614 for a profit of $61.40 on a winning $10 wager come Sunday.
I’ll be fading the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking and four-time major champion in the outright winner market at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. Scheffler’s 14% win probability at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — this week leads Rory McIlroy (9.6%) and Jon Rahm (5.7%) in the 156-man field.
I consider the U.S. Open and Shinnecock Hills playing conditions too difficult to invest too heavily in the outright favorite.
High scores are expected this week, but the weather shouldn’t be an issue for the third major of the 2026 golf season. That should help level the playing field, with only three golfers having outright U.S. Open odds shorter than +2000.
2026 U.S. Open storylines to watch
- Scottie Scheffler (14%) and Rory McIlroy (7.2%) pace yet another major field with the highest win probabilities
- Scheffler would complete the career grand slam with a victory on Sunday, which also marks his 30th birthday
- Brooks Koepka, the defending U.S. Open champion at Shinnecock Hills from 2018, withdrew from the Canadian Open ahead of his final round due to a hand injury
- Weather should not be an issue this week with no rain in the forecast for Southampton, but winds are expected to be in the double digits for three of four rounds
- Shinnecock Hills has historically been one of the toughest U.S. Open venues with tight fairways, long approach shots, and treacherous putting surfaces
- The last two winners of the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills were in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) at the time
U.S. Open odds (2026): Who’ll win at Shinnecock Hills?
| Golfer |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
<<+614>> |
🔼 14% |
 Rory McIlroy |
<<+1289>> | 🔽 7.2% |
 Jon Rahm |
<<+1787>> | 🔽 5.3% |
 Cameron Young |
<<+2339>> | 🔽 4.1% |
 Xander Schauffele |
<<+2400>> | 🔼 4% |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
<<+2464>> | 🔼 3.9% |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
<<+2930>> | 🔼 3.3% |
 Bryson DeChambeau |
<<+3025>> | 🔽 3.2% |
 Ludvig Aberg |
<<+3126>> | 🔽 3.1% |
 Russell Henley |
<<+3746>> | 🔼 2.6% |
 Si Woo Kim |
<<+4445>> | 🔼 2.2% |
 Brooks Koepka |
<<+4662>> | 🔼 2.1% |
 Sam Burns |
<<+4662>> | 🔽 2.1% |
 Wyndham Clark |
<<+4662>> | 🔽 2.1% |
 Collin Morikawa |
<<+4900>> | 🔼 2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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How I’m trading the 2026 U.S. Open outright winner market
- Heavy emphasis on short game
- Stick to top-ranked players
- Decrease bankroll
Shinnecock Hills is one of my favorite U.S. Open venues, and quite possibly, my favorite. I vividly remember Retief Goosen’s victory in 2004 and balls rolling off the green and far back into the fairway.
Hitting — and sticking —approach shots is mandatory. Getting up and down is no guarantee. As such, look for all but the longest hitters in the field to lay up when given the choice. They’ll be better off with short approach shots that allow for higher loft and more spin.
The expected high scores can help to level the playing field, but the last two winners at Shinnecock Hills — Brooks Koepka (2018) and Retief Goosen (2004) — ranked inside the top 10 of the OWGR at the time of their victory.
I’ll be restricting myself to a smaller bankroll this week when wagering on the U.S. Open. I’ll pick a couple of outright winners and 2-3 U.S. Open long shots with a strong short game who I consider to be undervalued.
U.S. Open course info & key stats
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a 7,440-yard, par-70 course. William Flynn redesigned the course (originally constructed by Willie Davis in 1891) in 1931. Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw led a restoration in 2013 that helped widen fairways. Many of the greens are elevated from the fairway, and the course is well-suited to the USGA’s standard firm and fast playing conditions.
Here are the key stats I’ll be targeting this week, with the percent weight in parentheses:
- Strokes gained: approach (25%)
- SG: around-the-green (25%)
- Bogey avoidance (15%)
- 3-putt avoidance (15%)
- Proximity from 200-plus yards (10%)
- Scrambling (10%)
U.S. Open weather: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Here is this week’s weather report for Southampton, N.Y., from Thursday to Friday:
| Round | Temperature | Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71° | 61% | 16 mph |
| 2 | 76° | 25% | 9 mph |
| 3 | 76° | 14% | 14 mph |
| 4 | 76° | 25% | 10 mph |
My early U.S. Open picks
- Russell Henley (+4000)
- Patrick Reed (+4000)
- Si Woo Kim (+4500)
- Patrick Cantlay (+4500)
- Min Woo Lee (+11011)
Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy?
As is usually the case for me with any golf major, I’ll be backing Scottie Scheffler OR Rory McIlroy, and likely waiting until Wednesday to finalize my decision.
As of Sunday evening, I’m leaning toward Scheffler, despite the significantly shorter odds. Scheffler has the edge in SG: approach and SG: around-the-green, as well as scrambling percentage.
Brooks Koepka’s injury status (and what to do about it)
Brooks Koepka withdrew from the RBC Canadian Open ahead of his final round due to a hand injury. The reigning champion of Shinnecock Hills was already a long shot, but his win probability first dipped to 1.9% but has since ticked back up to 2.1% as of Monday morning.
Koepka was -6 through 54 holes of the Canadian Open.
His T12 finish in the Masters was one of six top-20 results on the PGA Tour this year, but he finished just T55 in the PGA Championship a month later. I will not be investing in Koepka this week.
U.S. Open odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open with a14% win probability. The final round will be played on his 30th birthday, and he’d complete the career grand slam with victory.
Where is the 2026 U.S. Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open will be played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. The last time Shinnecock hosted the U.S. Open was in 2018. Brooks Koepka won with a 72-hole score of +1.
When is the 2026 U.S. Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open will be played from Thursday through Sunday. The final round is traditionally played on Father’s Day.
What’s the best way to trade on the U.S. Open?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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