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Who will be taken second overall in the 2026 NFL Draft: Arvell Reese or David Bailey?
That’s a decision the New York Jets and betting markets are all pondering ahead of Thursday night’s first round.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors have flip-flopped on Bailey and Reese over the last two days.
- Reese was -400 at one point Tuesday, but Bailey overtook him late in the day.
- Both players have led sports betting and prediction markets Wednesday.
“The New York Jets plan to select a pass-rusher. I think everybody across the league knows that,” NFL insider Adam Schefter said Wednesday on ESPN’s “Get Up.” “The question is whether it’s going to be David Bailey or whether it’s going to be Arvell Reese.”
Betting markets can’t seem to make heads or tails of the situation.
Reese, an edge rusher from Ohio State, appeared to be the likeliest choice, carrying odds of -400 to go No. 2 at BetMGM. By Wednesday morning, his odds plummeted, and Bailey, an edge rusher from Texas Tech, had overtaken him as a -150 favorite.
By Wednesday afternoon, however, Reese was back atop BetMGM’s odds list at -150. That quickly dropped to -130, with Bailey at +105 shortly after.
Signs of uncertainty
DraftKings had Reese at -145 and Bailey +110. FanDuel showed a much closer race, with Reese getting -115 and Bailey -105 to go No. 2 behind Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is a lock to be the first player taken by the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday.
Mock drafts and NFL analysts haven’t helped clear up the ambiguity and could even be the cause. NFL draft analyst Todd McShay has been as flip-floppy as the markets, giving both Reese and Bailey the nod over the last few days.
Todd McShay on No. 2 pick
April 15: “Now we’re back to David Bailey, and it’s close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles.”
April 16: “If I had to put my own money on it right now, it would be heavily on David Bailey.”
April 17: “I sent out a text, and the answer I got back… pic.twitter.com/jhTloryfnv
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) April 21, 2026
ESPN’s Peter Schrager said Tuesday that no leaks are coming out of Jets camp so far, but he’s leaning toward Bailey in his latest mock draft, with Reese falling to the Giants at No. 5.
I’m going Bailey at 2.
But 48 hours out, the fact the Jets aren’t talking to anyone is already a win for Gang Green. https://t.co/9qcFj6dVyM
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) April 21, 2026
Prediction madness
The second pick market at Kalshi has also been all over the place over the last 24 hours. Reese had a 62% chance to be the No. 2 selection Tuesday afternoon, but Bailey surged to 52% by the evening.
He remained ahead of Reese in prediction markets’ expectations, based on trading, until midday Wednesday when Reese skyrocketed back in front with a 55.6% chance.
Two hours later, Bailey was back in front, but by late afternoon, Reese had taken over the percentages once again.
Arvell Reece now favored again to go 2nd overall over David Bailey 👀
Have the Jets even made up their minds yet?
(Via @KalshiSports) pic.twitter.com/tmzXelHZ2A
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) April 22, 2026
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