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The Cincinnati Reds visit the San Diego Padres this evening as they eye another victory behind ace Chase Burns.
With Burns on the mound and a favorable matchup looming for Cincy’s offense, my Reds vs. Padres predictions have the road team prevailing at Petco Park.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, June 9.
Who will win Reds vs Padres today: Reds (-119)
Chase Burns has put himself in the NL Cy Young conversation this year with a stellar 2.05 ERA and a 7-1 record. The Cincinnati Reds‘ right-hander has also pitched extremely well on the road this season, compiling a 2.71 FIP and averaging 12.30 Ks per nine innings against 1.80 walks per nine innings.
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres are struggling immensely at the dish lately, carrying a .191 average and .109 ISO over the last seven days. They’re not squaring up the baseball much right now, and San Diego’s 23.9% strikeout rate is concerning against a guy like Burns.
On the other side, Lucas Giolito owns a 47.8% hard-hit rate across his last two appearances and an xERA north of six. The Reds have still generated a 38% hard-hit rate across their last six games, suggesting the Reds are capable of taking advantage if Giolito’s struggles continue.
I’d play this up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Giolito has walked 7.2 hitters per nine innings this season across four starts, so expect plenty of traffic on the basepaths tonight. Reds vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)
Giolito is far from reliable, and San Diego’s bullpen owns a 5.10 xERA over the last week. More importantly, the Padres relievers have allowed a 50% hard-hit rate during that span.
As for Cincinnati, its bullpen has posted a 5.26 FIP over the last two weeks while walking 4.80 hitters per nine innings. Burns has pitched beyond the sixth inning just once this season, so the Reds’ relievers will likely be asked to cover multiple frames as well.
Burns has also allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts. Even if he pitches well, the bullpens can push this game Over.
Playable to -110.
- ML/RL bets: 21-18, +1.92 units
- Over/Under bets: 22-16, +2.25 units
Reds vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Reds -119 | Padres +110
- Run line: Reds -1.5 (+156) | Padres +1.5 (-163)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Reds vs Padres trend
Cincinnati has hit the game total Over in 27 of its last 40 games (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Padres.
How to watch Reds vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, June 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, Padres.TV |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (7-1, 2.05 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (2-1, 4.86 ERA) |
Reds vs Padres latest injuries
Reds vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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