Trucking rate indexes surged in the first quarter, propelled by a spike in diesel fuel prices amid dwindling truckload capacity. These trends are expected to continue to weigh on shippers’ budgets as the freight cycle has now inflected, according to a quarterly report from 3PL AFS Logistics and financial services firm TD Cowen.
Less-than-truckload rates remained elevated as carriers’ focus on yield improvement was amplified by higher fuel prices. The LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index stood 66.9% above its January 2018 baseline during the seasonally weakest first quarter. That was 90 basis points lower than the fourth quarter but 300 bps higher y/y.
The dataset is expected to come in at 68.4% above the baseline in the second quarter, 520 bps higher y/y. That would mark a new high and 10 straight y/y increases.
Weight per shipment increased 3.8% from the fourth quarter, the first sequential increase in two years. The improvement comes as the industrial complex, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of LTL revenue, appears to be shaking off a three-year downturn.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing was in expansion territory in every month of the first quarter. While sentiment from survey respondents was tepid, flagging ongoing tariff and Iran-war-related demand concerns, the new orders index remained positive for a third month. (Changes in PMI data usually lead LTL volumes by a couple of months.)
Higher shipment weights and fuel prices pushed LTL cost per shipment 3% higher sequentially in the quarter, keeping the cost dataset more than 40% above the baseline.
“For quarter after quarter, LTL pricing stability seemed to hinge on carriers resisting the temptation to ‘buy’ volumes with pricing concessions as they weathered a stubbornly long demand trough,” said Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics. “Now fuel prices are primed to make a lasting impact and we’re finally seeing some signs of recovering demand.” Both higher shipment weights and fuel surcharges are accretive to LTL carrier margins.
The first-quarter LTL earnings season begins Apr. 28 when ArcBest (NASDAQ: ARCB) reports before the market opens.
TL rate index hits 13-quarter high
The TL rate-per-mile component of the index increased 150 bps sequentially in the first quarter (up 280 bps y/y) to a level that was 9% above the 2018 baseline. The fuel price spike and heightened regulatory enforcement drove the increase.
“The cumulative effect of carriers leaving the market and strict regulatory enforcement continues to constrain capacity, driving a steady supply-side push to higher truckload pricing,” the report said.
The rate-per-mile dataset is expected to increase 110 bps sequentially to 10.1% in the second quarter. The result would be a 420-bp y/y increase.
Truckload linehaul cost per shipment increased 10.2% sequentially in the first quarter with miles per shipment up 8.2%. A rebound in long-haul shipments, storm disruptions and tight capacity drove cost per shipment to a two-year high.
“While the term ‘new normal’ may conjure unpleasant memories of the COVID era, businesses should brace themselves for a new normal of elevated fuel costs,” said AFS CEO Andy Dyer. “Not only do the structural causes that spurred this spike take time to unwind, the related pricing changes, particularly in parcel, tend to be ‘sticky’ with effects that linger even after the underlying price of fuel recedes.”
The first-quarter TL earnings season begins on Wednesday when J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) reports after the market closes.
AFS Logistics is a non-asset-based 3PL providing audit and cost management services, managed transportation, and freight brokerage. It has visibility into more than $39 billion in annual freight spend.
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:
- Cass data shows further freight market tightening in March
- FedEx Freight sets goalposts for standalone business
- Freight market sees Covid-era extremes return
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