Prediction markets are all the rage in the US. In Canada, existing regulations severely limit the markets available — but there may be changes on the horizon.
As the hype around prediction markets reaches a frenzy in the US, Canada remains aloof.
Currently, Canadians can primarily wager on real-world events on a single regulated platform: Interactive Brokers’ IBKR Forecast Trader. However, Wealthsimple’s recently acquired approval for forecast contracts means accessibility will soon double. Questrade, Canada’s largest independent online brokerage, has also indicated contracts are on the way, but it is still awaiting its regulatory thumbs-up. But even with all three running at full throttle, Canada’s prediction markets will look a lot different than US markets.
Still, the recent changes signal a clear shift. Until now, Canada’s tighter rules have made it challenging for prediction markets to gain any traction, unlike the near free-for-all underway in the United States.
Even with regulatory approval, Canadian law limits operators to three contract types: economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. That restricted menu is a far cry from market availability in the US, where most activity centers on sports and elections.
“They are legal to a very limited scope,” Werner Antweiler, associate professor at UBC’s Sauder School of Business, said during a phone interview with Gambling Insider. For over 20 years, Antweiler ran an experimental not-for-profit prediction market at Sauder, so he’s intimately familiar with their operation.
What’s allowed in Canada is significantly less robust than what’s offered on the platforms in the US, he reiterated.
They’re not allowed for events such as elections, cultural and social events, or sports events. … There’s a template now for a very limited scope of activity.”
Canadian Framework, Rules Differ Substantially from US
In Canada, short-term contracts are also a no-go.
In 2017, the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) banned the sale of short-term, yes-no event contracts, known as “binary options,” citing fraud and investor risk. The ban prohibits advertising, offering, selling, or trading options with a maturity date of fewer than 30 days, though provinces can opt out. For example, BC developed a separate framework governing binary options (although it also bans short-term plays).
Still, that blanket restriction means the short-term binary contracts popular on US exchanges would never reach the regulated Canadian market. Even if the rules otherwise allowed sports markets, most of those contracts would typically resolve within hours or days, far quicker than the 30-day threshold.
Canada’s regulatory structure also differs from the US, where states regulate gambling and federal bodies (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC]) jointly oversee financial instruments. The SEC regulates stocks, bonds, and traders, and the CFTC covers derivatives. Prediction markets also fall under the CFTC’s purview, as they’re considered derivatives under US regulations.
By contrast, in Canada, CSA serves as an umbrella organization connecting provincial and territorial securities regulators. There’s also the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), the investment sector’s national, self-regulatory body. But like gambling, financial securities in Canada are ultimately controlled by provinces and territories.
In an email, Johanna Nicholson, CIRO’s manager, corporate communications and public affairs, told Gambling Insider, “In Canada, there is no single national framework specific to prediction markets.
Where they are offered as financial instruments, such as derivatives, they fall within the securities regulatory framework administrated by provincial and territorial regulators through the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and are subject to existing regulatory requirements.”
Markets in Canada Operate Within ‘Untested Legal Territory’
Given that structure, Canada is unlikely to see the same battles as those ongoing between the CFTC and a growing list of US states. However, Canada will likely also grapple with legal uncertainty, Antweiler believes.
Barring a major federal overhaul, CSA-approved operators would need to obtain provincial exemptions from the short-term ban to clear a US-like legal path forward. If that happens, it‘s possible that provincial and regional lotteries, which oversee gambling, could choose to flex their authority.
“Provincial governments could say, ‘this isn’t really trading in securities, it’s gambling,’ and there is jurisdiction on that,” Antweiler said.
He added:
In that sense, prediction markets are in legal limbo. Securities regulators can say, ‘This is our responsibility and our jurisdiction.’ But provinces could also say, ‘This actually looks like gambling, so it falls under a different jurisdiction.’ The provinces have a very strong fiscal incentive to prevent prediction markets from infringing on what is otherwise their monopoly. … There is an overlapping legal interest that hasn’t been settled. It may well come down to somebody applying and being denied, and then going to court.”
“This is untested legal territory,” he added, while noting that recent communications suggest more rulemaking may be forthcoming.
Canada’s National Bodies Restate Rules
A joint statement issued in early April by CSA and CIRO reiterated the current regulations governing event contracts. Its message was clear: comply or face enforcement.
The statement addressed what CSA and CIRO described as a “growing interest in prediction markets.” The rapid growth of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in the US is driving much of that interest.
Other jurisdictions, like Germany, have put a full stop to prediction markets, Antweiler noted. Personally, he’s “leaning towards” that model.
What’s the societal good? It’s not like futures trading in commodities, where people take a hedge position…What’s the hedge here? I cannot see a legitimate societal purpose in what is being proposed.”
Alberta, Ontario Take Different Regulatory Approach
In July, Alberta will launch its long-awaited commercial gambling market. Recently, its regulator, Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC), announced rules prohibiting election betting.
In a statement shared in February with Canadian Affairs, the AGLC said its rules prohibit prediction markets, and it is working on a regulatory response.
“AGLC policies continue to prohibit betting opportunities on political outcomes. … Additionally, predictions markets are not currently allowed in the province. With the opening of the iGaming market in Alberta, we are working with partners to determine a regulatory approach.”
Otherwise, the only provincial authority that has directly targeted prediction markets is the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). In 2025, OSC reached a settlement with Polymarket after the company operated in the province for three years despite the short-term contract ban.
The settlement effectively barred the company from advertising or operating in Ontario for at least two years. Specifically, it prohibited Polymarket from “marketing or engaging in promotional activities at events that take place in Ontario.”
The province, notably, began permitting limited betting on elections and cultural events when its legal online gaming market launched in 2022.
Polymarket Promos at Blue Jays Games Appear To Snub Settlement
In reality, Canadian media reported that individuals were distributing Polymarket promotional flyers outside Rogers Centre during the Toronto Blue Jays’ home-opener weekend.
“I’m not a lawyer, so I cannot speak from a legal perspective, but certainly the order says no advertisements, and they engaged in advertisements,” Antweiler said, referencing the reports.
I presume this is something that the regulator is looking at very seriously, though they may not comment on proceedings … but I fully anticipate that if Polymarket has broken the rules and the regulator has been made aware of it, they have a statutory obligation to follow through, investigate, and issue sanctions as appropriate. So I expect there’s action that may not be fully visible, but I would expect to be forthcoming.”
Gambling Insider emailed OSC and Polymarket to enquire about these reported settlement infractions.
Polymarket didn’t respond. OSC spokesperson Debra Chan declined to comment on (potentially) pending matters.
“As a general policy, the OSC does not comment on the nature, status, or existence of any cases that may or may not be underway to protect the integrity and fairness of any investigations,” Chan said.
Because of Canada’s jurisdictional fragmentation, Antweiler argued that Canada needs more cooperation and coordination among provinces and territories.
“There are bodies that help facilitate that. But it’s all voluntary,” he remarked.
“The commissions have to come together, and the provinces have to work together because of overlapping jurisdiction in securities and their own interests in regulating gambling. And really, we have to look at prediction markets as gambling in disguise.”
Canadians Sidestep Rules to Access Offshore Markets
Even with the current restrictions, determined Canadians can access prediction markets through a virtual private network (VPN). VPN technology can make it appear as though a user is logging in from a permitted location.
For ‘science,’ while working on this piece, I signed up for Kalshi and Polymarket from Halifax, Nova Scotia. Because I didn’t use a VPN, I had to go through the company’s websites, as neither app was available in the Canadian app store.
That’s as far as I got with Kalshi. The site’s geolocation and know-your-customer (KYC) requirements prohibited me from depositing, though that hasn’t stopped them from emailing me prompts to “call your shot.” Once I sort out a new VPN provider, I’ll see if I can make an actual deposit.
Polymarket was another story. I was able to add money to my wallet immediately (I stuck to the minimum amount of $12 CAD). That balance is still sitting there, unused, because I’m not really about that life. But they’ve sent twice as many emails as Kalshi over the same 10 days.
More Changes on Canadian Horizon
In the long term, the question of Canadian prediction markets remains unsettled. It would be easy to think that not much will change, but that would probably be a mistake.
Less than two years ago, President Biden’s CFTC was fighting to stop election betting. Sports contracts weren’t even an issue yet. Now the CFTC is petitioning on behalf of Kalshi and Polymarket against state and tribal interests.
It seems the push for more change “up North” is already afoot.
A company called Vancouver Prediction Exchange (VPX), formerly Toronto Prediction Exchange, says it wants to “build the most integrous and accessible” prediction platform in Canada.
Per its website, VPX argues Canadian prediction markets “should be regulated and Canadian-owned.”
Before launching broadly, VPX plans to operate a controlled pilot “in partnership with a select group of CIRO-registered dealers.” The British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) has reportedly agreed to serve as its lead regulator throughout the process.
As part of the pilot, VPX is seeking exemptive relief from BC’s binary ban. At its conclusion, the company intends to “formally apply for Recognition as an Exchange” under BC securities law.
Gambling Insider contacted BCSC to confirm VPX’s claims. BCSC’s manager of media relations & public affairs, Brian Kladko, said via email that the BCSC “does not comment on, or confirm the existence of, any discussions” with individual firms.
On the opposite coast, David Harrison, investor education & communications officer at the Nova Scotia Securities Commission (NSSC), told Gambling Insider that it had “no plans” to challenge platforms authorized to operate nationally under terms approved by CIRO, like Wealthsimple and IBC.
He clarified that “Since prediction markets can touch on gaming/lottery, we can’t speak for other organizations in the province.”
The ball, it seems, may end up in the provincial lotteries court.
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