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One Polymarket customer won nearly $1 million on World Cup prediction markets Sunday, though another lost more than $580,000 thanks to an unlikely spoiler.
Key Takeaways
- Egypt scored three goals in the second half to come back against New Zealand and cover the spread.
- Cabo Verde drew both of its first two matches against all odds.
- Users have lost close to and above $1 million predicting Cabo Verde would lose.
World Cup prediction markets have been a source of hordes of contract sales and purchases during the early portion of the tournament. Nearly $3 billion has been traded in the outright winner market since it launched last summer, along with heavy volume in match and futures markets.
Just after kick-off in Sunday’s matchup between Egypt and New Zealand, Polymarket Sports confirmed it processed a near 2-million-dollar position for Egypt to cover the 1.5-goal spread. The user stood to cash out $2.9 million, or just under $1 million in profit.
🚨BREAKING: Someone named “VoidSlap” just put $2M on Egypt to cover the spread.
This pays out $2,898,098.19 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/gRWpizuEv4
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 22, 2026
New Zealand’s Finn Surman left the user’s heart in their throat after he found the back of the net in the 15th minute. The Kiwis took a 1-0 lead into halftime, at which time they had a 50% live chance of winning the match. Egypt only had a 21% live probability of winning the game at the start of the second half.
Much to the user’s benefit, the Egyptians were given new life in the second half. Mostafa Zico, Mohamed Salah, and Trezeguet all slotted the ball past the goalkeeper, leaving the match at 3-1 when the final whistle sounded – and leaving the trader about $1 million richer.
The underdog strikes again
While backing Egypt proved to be a savvy decision, another Polymarket trader learned an expensive lesson from one of the tournament’s biggest underdogs.
Cabo Verde is the third-smallest nation ever to qualify for a World Cup. It shocked the sports world when it played a goalless draw with tournament favorite Spain in the opener, but it didn’t do enough to persuade everyone.
A user risked $584,627 on Uruguay to beat the African island nation in a market implying a 62% chance of victory. Their position would’ve paid $939,914.79 if it aged as intended.
🚨BREAKING: Someone put $580k on Uruguay to WIN their match vs Cape Verde
This pays out $939,914.79 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/cuIUvvkkR4
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 21, 2026
But lightning struck twice for Cabo Verde, as it came from behind to draw with the South American side, 2-2.
This is the second time that Cabo Verde taught an expensive lesson to Polymarket users. The platform reported several lucrative trades on Spain ahead of their clash last Monday, only for that money to be flushed down the drain.
World Cup prediction market probabilities
Polymarket users have pulled in France’s favor since the World Cup began. Les Bleus’ 20% probability of winning the competition is far ahead of Spain’s 14%.
Argentina soared up to 13% following Lionel Messi’s hat-trick against Nigeria in the opener. La Albiceleste are tied with England.
Portugal’s chances fell significantly after its 1-1 draw with DR Congo, though its 7% probability still leads a second tier that includes Germany (6%), Brazil (6%), the Netherlands (5%), and the USA (4%).
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
