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A Polymarket user lost nearly $1 million when Spain failed to beat Cabo Verde in Monday’s 0-0 draw.
Key Takeaways
- Spain didn’t suffer a draw or loss at Euro 2024 but couldn’t win its World Cup opener.
- A win would have resulted in an $86,875.48 profit for the trader.
- A Kalshi user won just under $100,000 by risking $2.4 million on Cabo Verde failing to beat Spain.
Polymarket confirmed it received $999,068 in contract purchases from a user who predicted Spain, which had a co-leading 16% chance of winning the World Cup at noon Monday, to beat Cabo Verde.
Cabo Verde has a total population of approximately 530,000, which is smaller than Sacramento, California.
Had Spain managed to beat its tiny opponent, the trade would have paid out approximately $1.1 million, generating an $86,875.48 profit. Instead, Cabo Verde overcame a 92% chance of a Spain win and secured one point.
🚨BREAKING: Someone just put $1M on Spain to WIN their match vs Cape Verde today
This pays out is $1,085,943.48 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/7ODo3dJ7Pl
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026
Despite shocking the tournament favorite and reigning European champion, Cabo Verde still has just a 3% chance of winning Group H and is the most likely team to finish last at 44%, just ahead of Saudi Arabia at 42%.
Spain has a 73% chance of winning Group H, although that is down from 81% at noon Monday. Its probability dropped as low as 62% before it rebounded to its current value.
Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay all have one point after one match in the group stage.
Sneaking over the line
While Polymarket’s million-dollar trader was left high and dry, a Kalshi user was given relief after the sweat of a lifetime during Monday’s match.
The company posted before kick-off that one user had put more than $2.3 million on Cabo Verde not beating Spain. The position carried a potential payout of roughly $2.4 million and a profit of $96,347.21.
NEW: One Kalshi trader has $2,312,333 on Cape Verde to NOT win over Spain today.
$2,408,680 potential payout on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/I6PP1GyZfL
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) June 15, 2026
While the user ultimately received their winnings, it didn’t come without lots of teeth-clenching and fingernail-biting. Spain did not score after creating 2.1 expected goals, while Cabo Verde was also held scoreless on 0.2 expected goals but saw a late header saved.
Spain’s 74% possession dwarfed its African rival’s, but La Roja couldn’t sneak a goal past 40-year-old overnight sensation Vozinha.
After Cabo Verde’s draw with Spain, goalkeeper Vozinha has now reached 5.7m Instagram followers from 50k before the game, with the figure continuing to increase! 🤩📈 pic.twitter.com/7Ne9tmv51J
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) June 16, 2026
Cabo Verde’s next match will be against Uruguay on Sunday. Polymarket has Uruguay down for a 67% chance of winning, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 12% chance of a loss.
Spain and Saudi Arabia will also take the pitch Sunday. There is an 88% chance of a Spain win, a 9% chance of a draw, and a 4% chance of Saudi Arabia winning.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
