Orbán’s EU fixer faces becoming Hungary’s ‘fall guy’

Ambassador Bálint Ódor’s knowledge of the EU’s inner workings helped the outgoing government forcefully make its points for years. But his time in Brussels looks like it’s coming to an end.

By GABRIEL GAVIN

^{Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO}

Under Viktor Orbán, Hungary needed someone in Brussels who could aggressively defend his government’s belligerent anti-EU stance while quietly working with other countries to get things done. In Bálint Ódor, it had its man.

Over the past six years, the 50-year-old — more mild-mannered than his bosses’ reputations in Europe might suggest — served as Hungary’s ambassador to the EU as relations with the bloc sank to historic lows. In that time, Budapest moved closer to Russia, trashed Ukraine and saw the bloc freeze billions of euros in funds over curbs on democratic freedoms.

But with Orbán’s defeat after 16 years as prime minister, Ódor could be out of a job. Opposition leader Péter Magyar, who ended the populist government’s rule in parliamentary elections on April 12, promised a historic reset, signaling he will sweep aside anyone too closely identified with the previous administration.

“By definition, everybody understands of each other that the loyalty is to your political bosses and to delivering results to their instructions,” said Ivan Rogers, about national ambassadors to the EU, a role he performed for the U.K. in Brussels until 2017. And, whatever Ódor thought about these instructions personally, he followed them to the letter.

While even those who worked closely with Ódor were uncertain about whether he was simply following orders or shared Orbán’s desire to bash Brussels, his reputation as the outgoing prime minister’s fixer may well be his downfall, according to five diplomats and officials from countries other than Hungary who worked with him closely, and who were granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO.

It would be easy to think that, given Orbán’s loud anti-EU stance, his man in Brussels would be a blunt instrument. Quite the opposite. Ódor is an expert on its treaties and has a PhD in international relations. Universities back home use his books to teach students how Europe works.

That’s why he was so effective, according to his fellow diplomats. Building any kind of trust within the Brussels bubble when he took over as ambassador in 2022 was a tough task. Ódor arrived in the wake of a spying scandal that saw the embassy itself accused of running intelligence agents under diplomatic cover and amid warnings Budapest was passing information to Moscow. The other leading Hungarian in town, Olivér Várhelyi, had also served as ambassador before being nominated by Orbán to be the country’s European commissioner, and is still being probed for his involvement in the alleged affair. He denies any wrongdoing.

‘You know he will deliver’

As Rogers implied, the group of ambassadors in Brussels are often a close-knit bunch. They’re expected to keep a close eye on diplomatic moves by their counterparts, feeding back notes on what other governments are saying or, perhaps more crucially, not saying. They also play an essential role in hammering out compromises and ensuring their countries’ interests are reflected in negotiations. This requires bridge-building skills and strong working relations with other envoys, MEPs and European Commission and Council officials.

For Ódor, the job wasn’t made easier by Orbán’s broadsides at Brussels and his accusations the EU was interfering in its domestic affairs. The ambassador had to build constructive ties with colleagues, while not drawing suspicions back home for being too friendly with them.

Ódor has at least been a consistent opponent on issues where Budapest was digging in its heels, clearly telegraphing to other nation’s ambassadors the Hungarian government’s position and being upfront about where there was room for negotiation, the four diplomats and officials who worked with him said. They were granted anonymity because the nature of their roles means their working relationships are sensitive. 

“When you talk to Balint and he says ‘I agree with you’ you know he will deliver,” one of them said, adding that Ódor could be constructive even while having to follow the Budapest hard line.

Six-foot-two tall with glasses and graying hair, the Hungarian ambassador cuts a slightly awkward figure — and is spotted more frequently in the background of pictures while escorting his bosses in Brussels than during appearances in his own right. And when publicly challenged to defend the Hungarian government’s public priorities at a think tank event in late 2024, those present said he was evidently uncomfortable at the prospect of speaking out beyond his brief on EU affairs.

However, his role representing the EU’s most notorious blocker gave Ódor a powerful position during Coreper — the all-important meetings of ambassadors held in Brussels at least twice a week to hash out policy on everything from economic affairs to defense to relations with Washington. In practice, Budapest used its leverage to secure major carveouts from schemes it didn’t want to be part of — like funding Ukraine or quitting Russian oil — and staved off punishment for breaching its obligations for as long as possible.

For some who worked alongside him representing other European governments, this meant Ódor was a clear success.

“This is a country of 9.5 million people in a union of 450 million and yet around that table they have wielded this much power,” said a senior EU official. “Nobody thinks that isn’t impressive.”

Power games

Magyar’s sweep to power has career diplomats in Brussels worried. Most of the 135 staff behind the blacked-out windows of Hungary’s towering permanent representation in Brussels’ European quarter have never gone through a domestic handover of power because they weren’t working there in 2010. While lawyers, technical attaches and assistants are likely to be essential, more visible political appointees could be in line to be moved or dismissed, starting with the ambassador himself.

“It’s always been hard to know if he believes what he says — if he shares Orbán’s views, or if he’s just doing his job,” said a fellow ambassador, pointing out that Ódor fitted in comfortably with his colleagues, cracking jokes in the margins of meetings.

That’s a perennial issue for most EU diplomats from countries with impartial civil services, according to Rogers, who served as the U.K.’s ambassador to the bloc throughout much of the Brexit negotiations. 

“You never really ask your colleagues, ‘are you a true believer?’ — nobody would have asked me whether I was a true believer in [David] Cameron or [Theresa] May,” two prime ministers he served, he said. Nonetheless, “Olivér [Várhelyi] was a true believer, I think … When he came in there was probably rather less collaboration behind the scenes. His predecessors and successors I suspect were more apparatchik-class diplomats who nevertheless had good connections.”

Despite this, Várhelyi is likely to stay on as European commissioner, because EU convention makes it far harder for an incoming government to fire them than the country’s ambassador. 

‘True to their oath’

The insistence he was just doing his job looks unlikely to save Ódor from being removed from the role, particularly given one of Magyar’s most important first tasks is to unfreeze the €18 billion in EU funds. That would constitute a major thaw in relations with Brussels, and would require Budapest to show a serious departure from the Orbán days.

The posting is also personal for Magyar — who worked in the Hungarian permanent representation over a decade ago. His government will depend “on everyone who has done their job well and has remained true to their oath,” he said in his first press conference after the election victory.

The most likely candidate to take charge of the embassy is Márton Hajdu, two Hungarian officials told POLITICO. A former spokesperson for Hungary’s foreign ministry who later climbed the ranks of the Commission, Hajdu became an advisor to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and is understood to be an obvious choice for the incoming Tisza Party, which is scrambling to find people it can trust to do its bidding.

Hajdu joined Magyar for talks with the Commission in Budapest over the weekend on how to unlock the funds, photographed as part of the six-strong team expected to take high-profile jobs.

Ódor is unlikely to get much thanks for his service from the incoming government — or from his opposite numbers in Brussels.

“He’d be the one to be dressed down in Coreper whenever the government blocked a decision yet again, cozied up to Russia or just generally refused to cooperate with the EU,” said Júlia Pőcze, a Hungarian political expert and researcher at Brussels’ CEPS think tank. 

He has always been “a convenient fall guy for Orbán in Brussels,” she said. He looks like being the fall guy for Magyar too.