I don’t usually write in first person, but this week’s news hits particularly close to home.
I was hoping to be giving a big ole’ bingo today to the US men’s soccer team for going perfect through World Cup group play and writing about how the squads’ momentum would boost sportsbook handle and prediction market volume heading into the Round of 32. While the latter holds up since the USA had already clinched first place in Group D, the reserves Mauricio Pochettino put on the field fell to Turkiye 3-2 on Thursday night.
So, yeah, same difference in terms of the USA’s placement in the knockout stage, but the loss is a bit of a buzzkill and tempers this week’s grade for the team.
Instead, as we wrap up the week in the gambling industry, we’ll start on the negative side of the Bingos & Busts ledger with another topic that’s near and dear to this Charlotte-based editor’s heart (and wallet).
Bust: North Carolina Lawmakers Hit Gamblers With New Tax Burden
The state’s decision to bump the tax on sportsbooks from 18% to 23% was expected, but bettors were blindsided by a provision in the bill that affects them directly. If signed by Gov. Josh Stein, the law effectively makes winnings of $2,000 or more at a single sportsbook taxable in a state where players are not allowed to deduct losses. In other words, win $2,000, lose $2,000, and still owe state taxes on $2,000 (this is in addition to the new federal tax rule that caps the losses gamblers can claim at 90%). Requiring operators to report this information to a state is unprecedented, and the lawmakers don’t seem to realize it defeats its own purpose by driving North Carolina gamblers to offshore books, neighborhood guys, and yes, prediction markets, thus potentially reducing tax revenue rather than increasing it.
Bingo: World Cup Betting is Booming on Prediction Markets
Trading volume on Kalshi has surpassed the $1 billion mark every day since June 12, InGame reported, and more than $17 billion has flowed through the platform since the World Cup kicked off. Wednesday’s volume doubled what Kalshi saw for the Super Bowl. Parlays, which Kalshi so eloquently calls “combos”, are driving the growth, and prediction markets keep capitalizing where sportsbooks can’t – unregulated states. According to Susquehanna analyst Joe Stauff, whose company provides a lot of liquidity for exchanges, prediction markets are the “outsized beneficiaries” of the World Cup betting boom, driven early by the USA’s success, since most games are being played in jurisdictions where sports betting is not legal (again, h/t InGame). This dynamic will continue to play out during football season.
Bingo: Kalshi Eyes $40 Billion Valuation, Trump Jr. Gets Richer
While plenty of skeptics have prediction markets on bubble watch, Kalshi’s next funding round could value the company at a whopping $40 billion, the Financial Times reported behind a paywall, up from $22 billion per its most recent capital raise in May. One of the biggest beneficiaries? Donald Trump Jr., whose strategic advisory role landed him $300,000 in equity when Kalshi was valued at under a paltry $2 billion, according to a separate piece in the FT.
Bust: Polymarket’s Player Movement Contracts Could Include High Schoolers
If Polymarket wants to improve its public perception, at least in terms of the markets available on its site, offering gambling on kids probably isn’t the way. Per CFTC filings cited by Dustin Gouker on Event Horizon, Polymarket US has self-certified contracts on player movement that could include high schoolers committing to college programs. Last year, after the NCAA pushed back, Kalshi pulled the plug on self-certified contracts on college athlete transfers. Let’s hope Polymarket comes to its senses on this one, too.
Bingo: Harassers Not Welcome at Fanatics
Folks around the gambling industry don’t see eye-to-eye on a lot of issues, but we can all agree it’s not okay to threaten or otherwise abuse an athlete whose missed free throw or dropped pass results in a lost parlay. Such harassment has become too common, and Fanatics Sportsbook unveiled a partnership with Integrity Compliance 360 and Signify Group to address it. Under the Bad Actor Program, bettors determined to be threatening or abusing athletes via social media will be suspended or even banned. While Fanatics isn’t the first sportsbook to recognize the problem – BetMGM’s and FanDuel’s policies call for abusive customers’ accounts to be closed – the company is encouraging other operators to join the new tech-forward approach.
Bust: Casino Proposal Rejected by Lumbee Tribe Voters
We complete this week’s Bingos & Busts list where it began: my home state of North Carolina. The state’s Lumbee Tribe voted down a constitutional amendment that would have opened the door to a casino resort on its land. After the Lumbees earned federal recognition in December, tribal leadership announced plans for the development on the 241 acres of land it purchased. The tribe’s members were not on board with the leaders, though, as 62% of those who turned out voted the proposal down. While opponents believe the amendment would have put too much power in the chairperson’s hands and also cite moral and religious objections, supporters lament the missed opportunity to provide a needed jolt to the tribe’s economy.
Editor’s note: With the July 4 holiday next week and a much-needed break for me the week after that, Bingos & Busts will return on Friday, July 17.
The post NC Sticks it to Bettors, World Cup Trading Booms, Kalshi Coffers Fatten in This Week’s Bingos & Busts appeared first on Gambling Insider.
