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Friday Junior has arrived, folks. The weekend is basically here, even if we still have to tiptoe through one more day.
I have a few MLB player props from today’s slate that should get things rolling early, and I am really liking spots for guys like Ben Rice and Bobby Witt Jr. this evening.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kody Clemens |
Over 1.5 total bases | <<+117>> |
 Ben Rice |
Over 1.5 total bases | <<-112>> |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
Over 1.5 total bases | <<-149>> |
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 total bases (+117)
Certain stats force me into making bets, and Texas Rangers starter Jack Leiter is serving up one of those spots. With Leiter allowing a 76% elevation rate to left-handed hitters over his last 30 batters faced, I have to find a lefty in a favorable matchup. That guy just so happens to be our good friend, Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens.
If you need a larger sample size, Leiter is still allowing more than a 70% elevation rate to lefties over his last 90 batters faced. During that stretch, he’s also surrendered an 11.7% barrel rate, while left-handed hitters own a .300 xBA and .541 xSLG against him.
On the other side, Mr. Clemens has been an absolute rocket, get it? Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is batting .429 with a 1.107 SLG and 1.574 OPS, while producing 44% hard contact and a 20% barrel rate.
The Rocket’s son also finds himself with an elite rating over at Batters-Box, where he owns the highest arsenal coverage among today’s elite-rated hitters, matching up with 94.9% of Leiter’s pitch mix.
If you want to lay roughly -105 on his hits + runs + RBI prop, I fully endorse it. Personally, the plus money is doing all the talking for me.
- Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, MNNT
Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases (-112)
Insert the same beginning sentence for this prop too, because New York Yankees young slugger Ben Rice is in a real nice spot against Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke.
The right-hander has been getting dominated by left-handed hitters. Over the last 30 batters faced, they have produced a 68.8% elevation rate, along with 50% hard contact and a 12.5% barrel rate. Need a larger sample size? Over his last 60 batters faced, lefties are still elevating the baseball nearly 65% of the time while barreling it at a 9.7% clip.
Rice enters today’s matchup with an elite rating and has cashed this prop in six of his last 10 elite-rated spots. He also owns a 72.9% arsenal coverage rating against Burke’s entire pitch mix.
Not to mention, the young fella has been everything to this Yankees lineup lately, batting .292 with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.100 OPS. During that stretch, he’s generated 52.6% hard contact and a 10.5% barrel rate.
Do not be afraid to pay a little extra juice in this spot. I’d be comfortable taking it up to -120.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, CHSN
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-149)
It’s always a blast backing one of the most consistent and exhilarating players in baseball, and today is a strong spot to ride Kansas City Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. Over his total bases prop this evening. The star shortstop carries a strong rating in Batters-Box default grades and an elite mark in the current season dataset.
When graded strongly at home, Witt clears this line 66.67% of the time, while also leaving the yard 20.37% of the time and doubling at a 42.59% clip. Yes, that is also a green light to sprinkle on the extra bases props.
Witt has also been scorching over his last 30 at-bats against left handed pitching, posting a .333 average, .844 OPS, and .375 wOBA, along with 52% hard contact and a 12% barrel rate.
He draws St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Matthew Liberatore, who carries a poorly rated matchup profile in both strikeout and ground ball rates this season. Away from home against right-handed hitters, Liberatore is allowing a 67.6% elevation rate, while opposing righties are hitting .287 with a .476 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA.
Over his last 30 right-handed hitters faced, he has also allowed a .419 xBA, .660 xSLG, and .372 xwOBA. If you’re not in the juice-paying business, the home run or double prop is the cleaner value angle.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, CARD
- Prop picks: 228-394-35, +7.14 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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