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Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can guys like Yandy Diaz or Shohei Ohtani cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?
My best home run props for Thursday, July 2 certainly hope so.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Liam Hicks |
<<+546>> |
 Yandy Diaz |
<<+542>> |
 Shohei Ohtani |
<<+208>> |
| 💲Today’s HR parlay | <<+12161>> |
Home run pick: Liam Hicks (+546)
Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen has his hands full this evening against a lineup featuring five elite-rated bats. One stands out above the rest in my eyes, and that’s Liam Hicks.
Hicks has been seeing the ball extremely well and, with the momentum of the offense behind him, should be in a prime spot all afternoon to do damage.
Hicks covers over 83% of Lorenzen’s pitch mix while carrying an elite rating in Batters-Box’s current season grades. In his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .346 AVG, .538 SLG, and .955 OPS.
Rockies pitching has been tormented by lefties at Coors Field, as opponents are hitting over .350 with a .519 SLG, .409 wOBA, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate. Over Lorenzen’s last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they are producing a 66.7% hard-hit rate and a 55% elevation rate, along with a .375 expected batting average, .514 xSLG, and .337 xwOBA.
For the price, I think it is worth dabbling on Hicks to go yard in Coors.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, MIAM
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+542)
It is Yandy Diaz over Junior Caminero in this spot tonight.
Diaz owns an arsenal coverage greater than 80% against Royals right hander Stephen Kolek, whose arsenal grades more than 50% below league average. The only two above average pitches in his mix are the fastball and sinker. Diaz is hitting .414 against sinkers this season with a 1.066 OPS and a .479 wOBA.
Against fastballs, his expected batting average is still above .300.
The Rays veteran has also been generating an alarming amount of hard contact. In his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching, he owns a 71.4% hard-hit rate while batting .320 with an .840 OPS and a .369 wOBA.
At the current price tag, this feels like a better option than trying to bank on Caminero hitting a home run seven games in a row.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, RAYS
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+208)
There is an argument to be made that every day is a Shohei Ohtani day. Today is certainly one of them, as he enters Thursday with an elite rating covering 82.7% of Randy Vasquez’s entire pitch mix on Batters-Box.
Tonight will mark Ohtani’s 314th elite rating over the last three seasons. In the previous 313, he has recorded a home run 29.71% of the time.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching, he owns a .346 AVG, .462 SLG, and .862 OPS. The Dodgers slugger is also generating a 50% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate during that stretch.
For Vásquez, the last 30 lefties he has faced have produced a 57.7% hard-hit rate, 19.2% barrel rate, and 65.4% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .764 xSLG and .596 xwOBA in that span.
I am fully expecting the superstar to have a ball fly off the bat this evening, hopefully out of the ballpark.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
- HR picks: 65-240, +8.7 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Liam Hicks |
Bet Now <<+12161>> |
| Yandy Diaz |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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