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There are plenty of mismatches on today’s MLB schedule, and some value to be found on MLB home run props.
My MLB player props for Sunday, June 21 include Brandon Lowe and James Wood.
Read on for my full analysis.
Best MLB home run props today
Brandon Lowe
James WoodHome run pick: Brandon Lowe (+218)
Coors Field is the most homer-friendly venue in the majors with a 112 Park Factor, and Brandon Lowe will have plenty of opportunity to go yard this afternoon.
The Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman has hit 14 of his 18 dingers vs. right-handed pitching, and Colorado Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen provides a favorable matchup.
Lefties like Lowe are batting .403 vs. Lorenzen this season, while the 34-year-old has surrendered 1.5 HR/9.
The Rockies bullpen has also been susceptible to the long ball, giving up 44 homers this year — tied for third most in MLB.
I’m playing Lowe up to +210.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: James Wood (+288)
James Wood hit 31 dingers last season, but the 23-year-old is already up to 20 home runs in what’s shaping up to be a true breakout year.
The Washington Nationals slugger ranks among the top percentile in the majors in xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel %, so it’s no surprise how often he’s going yard.
Tampa Bay Rays starter Nick Martinez has given up 1.7 HR/9 over his last three appearances, while the team’s bullpen has allowed 47 dingers – second-most among all clubs.
Wood provides solid value at anything north of +275.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rays.TV
- HR picks: 8-24, +1.82 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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