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A new week brings a fresh slate of opportunities!
I’m backing Shohei Ohtani, Jake Bauers, and Kyle Stowers to go deep in my favorite MLB player props and home run predictions for Monday, June 22.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
<<+201>> |
 Jake Bauers |
<<+324>> |
 Kyle Stowers |
<<+445>> |
| 💲Today’s HR parlay | <<+6832>> |
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+201)
The No. 1-rated hitter on the slate having a very “meh” price tag to leave the yard makes complete sense. If you can find a boost, this is the prop to use it on. Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani has strong trends when elite, especially in the home run department. In 133 elite-rated road games on Batters-Box, Ohtani has left the yard 28.57% of the time.
On top of that, he’s posting a near 70% elevation rate while generating 77% hard contact and a 31% barrel rate over his last 30 road plate appearances.
Ohtani draws Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, against whom he has nearly 90% arsenal coverage. Matthews owns one of the weakest pitcher ratings on the slate and has struggled badly against lefties. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he carries a 9.00 ERA and 7.01 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact, a 16% barrel rate, and a 70% elevation rate.
If you want extra protection on Ohtani, adding his double makes sense. I expect him to boom tonight against Matthews.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, SportsNet Los Angeles
Home run pick: Jake Bauers (+324)
Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers has been producing more hard contact than anyone in baseball over his last 30 plate appearances, generating 77% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate vs right-handed pitching. Zooming out to his last 60 plate appearances, he still holds a 73% hard contact rate and a 13.3% barrel rate, while posting a .596 SLG and a .428 wOBA.
This evening, he draws Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, a matchup he sees well with 82% arsenal coverage. At home this season, Singer owns a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP, allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Those bats have produced a .280 xBA, .527 SLG, and .380 xwOBA.
Bauers’ batting average has been a bit low despite consistently barreling the ball. He feels due for extra bases tonight, whether it’s going into the stands or one off the wall. Either way, this is a strong spot for power production, with the double worth a look as insurance.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, BREW
Home run pick: Kyle Stowers (+445)
Miami Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers enters today with one of the best matchup ratings in this game, while having one of the best home run trends when elite. In 21 elite ratings at home, the Marlin homers 28.57% of the time.
Stowers has been on a tear over his last 10 games, generating 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 63.2% of the time. He also owns a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA in that stretch.
Stowers draws Texas Rangers starter Kumar Rocker, against whom he has nearly 70% arsenal coverage. Rocker enters today with the worst hard contact rating on the day, giving up the most among today’s starters. He has also consistently struggled against left-handed hitters, who over his last 60 faced are producing 51% hard contact, a 12.2% barrel rate, and a 67% elevation rate.
With Rocker allowing a ton of hard contact and elevation, and Stowers producing it at a high level, +445 is a price worth backing Stowers at.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAMI, RSN
- HR picks: 62-208, +18.5 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Shohei Ohtani |
Bet Now <<+6832>> |
| Jake Bauers |
|
| Kyle Stowers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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