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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, June 12

Betting

by ‘The Machine’ Levene

5 hours ago 0 1

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Friday is here, and the MLB slate is loaded with hitters in prime spots to leave the yard.

My favorite looks and MLB player props this evening include Samuel Basallo and Kody Clemens.

Check out my top MLB picks for June 12.

UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Samuel Basallo	<<+389>>
Kody Clemens	<<+437>>

Home run pick: Samuel Basallo (+389)

Baltimore Orioles young slugger Samuel Basallo is a guy I am already a fan of. His hits, runs and RBI prop looks good this evening, and when I like a hitter to have success at the dish, I am always a strong advocate for sprinkling on their home run prop as well.

The 21-year-old draws San Diego Padres right hander Griffin Canning, who enters today with the one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day, according to Batters-Box.

Canning has been getting torched by left-handed hitters all season, especially of late. Over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced, opponents have produced a 61% hard contact rate and a 14.6% barrel rate while posting a .660 xSLG and .396 xwOBA.

To make matters worse, 52% of Canning’s arsenal grades below league average, according to FanGraphs. Basallo owns a 79.1% arsenal coverage rating against Canning’s pitch mix, giving him a very favorable matchup profile.

The Orioles’ young stud has also been squaring up right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, posting a 1.036 OPS and .423 wOBA while generating a 19.05% barrel rate and a 47.6% hard contact rate.

With both sides pointing toward plenty of hard contact, I think this is a great spot for the young fella to leave the yard.

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MASN, SDPA

Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+437)

Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens has been making a ton of hard contact lately. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a 54.2% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and 66.7% elevation rate while batting .379 with an .862 SLG and 1.262 OPS.

Roger’s son draws St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, who grades poorly in hard contact and strikeout metrics on Batters-Box.

The right-hander has struggled this season against left-handed hitters, allowing 60% hard contact and a 13.7% barrel rate. Those lefties have produced a .619 xSLG and .434 xwOBA against him.

According to FanGraphs, only 14% of Leahy’s arsenal grades above league average. On the other side, Clemens owns an 84.2% arsenal coverage rating against Leahy’s pitch mix.

After an 0-for-4 day at the dish on Thursday, Clemens should be looking to bounce back this weekend and do damage against the below-average pitches Leahy will throw his way.

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MNNT, CARD

Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record

HR picks: 54-182-15, +12.8 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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