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The road to World Cup glory begins today at the iconic Estadio Azteca, where Mexico has the honor of opening the 2026 tournament against South Africa in front of a raucous home crowd.
El Tri may not be among the favorites to lift the trophy this summer, but the combination of home support, experience, and a favorable matchup makes them a team worth backing in the opener.
My Mexico vs. South Africa predictions expect the hosts to start their World Cup campaign with a convincing three-point performance.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday, June 11, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
top pick
Who will win Mexico vs South Africa: Mexico -1.5 (+130)
Javier Aguirre’s Mexico’s 4-3-3 focuses on possession, and their experienced heads will be key as they’re among the outsiders in the World Cup odds.
Raul Jimenez can get the goals, Orbelin Pineda has shown real guile in the Greek Super League this season, and Alvaro Fidalgo’s ability to help transition the ball will be integral.
They’re now undefeated since last October, and the positive news is that their final World Cup tune-up saw them put five goals past Serbia.
South Africa topped their qualifying group, but they still conceded nearly a goal per game, despite playing the likes of Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
Add in their early exit at AFCON, and it’s a team that can’t often translate their quick passing game and speedy transitions when they face superior opposition.
Recent form is concerning, with just one win in four friendlies before this tournament. Back Mexico to win by -1.5 up to +115.
Mexico vs South Africa Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 (+126)
Looking back at recent World Cups, the opening game has finished with 3+ goals in three of the previous five tournaments, and landed in all three games in which the host was the favorite, as Mexico is in this game.
This South Africa team will be capable of scoring; they play with real speed, energy, and a directness that will test a Mexican defense that only has one player currently in a top European league.
What will drive this into being a high score line is the intangible element. The thrill of opening the World Cup will play a part for both teams, but for Mexico in particular, the crowd will give them a huge boost, and the bouncing Azteca will push El Tri forward and fill them with confidence.
Mexico vs South Africa projected lineup
Mexico (4-3-3): Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Alvarez, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Fidalgo, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones
South Africa (4-3-3): Williams; Mudau, Mbokazi, Okon, Modiba; Mbatha, Sithole, Mokoena; Appollis, Foster, Moremi
Mexico vs South Africa injuries
Mexico: No key injuries to report.
South Africa: No key injuries to report.
Mexico vs South Africa weather
At 1:00 PM on Thursday (local time), the weather at Estadio Azteca will be mostly cloudy and very warm, with a high of approximately 32°C (feels like 36°C) and around a 10% chance of rain.
Mexico vs South Africa odds
 Mexico |
 South Africa |
|
|---|---|---|
| -233 | Moneyline | +809 |
| +400 | Draw | +400 |
| Over 2.5 (+127) | Total | Under 2.5 (-127) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Mexico vs South Africa
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico |
| Date | Thursday, June 11, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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