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The New York Mets will look to extend their winning streak to three games as they visit the San Diego Padres tonight.
Griffin Canning hasn’t found his rhythm on the mound this season, and I’m backing New York to get the better of him once again in my Mets vs. Padres predictions.
Read on for my full breakdown and free MLB picks for Saturday, June 6.
Who will win Mets vs Padres today: Mets (-124)
Griffin Canning (0-4, 7.16 ERA) has been an absolute disaster for the San Diego Padres.
Batters are teeing off on him, boasting an average exit velocity of 92.4 mph and an 11.5% barrel rate. When the struggling right-hander is not giving up bombs, Canning is allowing 4.9 walks per nine innings.
Although New York Mets starter Nolan McLean (3-4, 4.21 ERA) has gone through a rough patch himself, his underlying numbers look good. The hard-throwing righty is striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings while holding opponents to a .291 xwOBA.
I expect the Mets to hit Canning hard and like them to win at -130 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets rank third in the majors in hard-hit percentage (41.7%), and Canning surrenders hard contact 48.7% of the time.Mets vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
This is a matchup between what might be the league’s two worst offenses. The Padres (.289) and Mets (.292) are at the bottom of the league in wOBA, take up the worst two spots in OPS, and both have a heavy lean to the Under this year.
The Padres are dead last in run production (3.79 per game) and struggle against McLean’s signature pitch, pulling just 9.7% of sinkers in the air. Even if the Mets fare better against Canning, the Under is the clear play for me, and I’d back it to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 11-15, -4.66 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-16, -8.40 units
Mets vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Mets -124 | Padres +106
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+134) | Padres +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Mets vs Padres trend
San Diego is 0-5 SU in Canning’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Saturday, June 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Padres.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (3-4, 4.21 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (0-4, 7.16 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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