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The already-struggling Phoenix Mercury may be down two key starters tonight when they head to Moda Center to face the surprisingly competitive Portland Fire.
With Kahleah Copper doubtful and Alyssa Thomas questionable, my Mercury vs. Fire predictions call for the home side to cover the spread.
Find out more in my WNBA picks for June 5.
Mercury vs Fire prediction
Mercury vs Fire best bet: Fire -2.5 (-110)
The Portland Fire return home after a blowout road loss to Golden State, but they get a great bounce-back opportunity against the potentially shorthanded Phoenix Mercury.
The likely absence of Kahleah Copper’s 18.2 points per game will hurt a Mercury team with the 12th-ranked offensive rating (104), and Alyssa Thomas’ questionable tag shadows even more doubt.
Portland’s defense has also suffocated its opponents over the last five games, limiting them to just 80 points per game.
Phoenix’s defense (11th in DRTG) is nowhere near good enough to slow down a Fire squad that knocks down nearly 46% of its shots (fifth), and the home side’s edge on both ends of the floor will lead them to cover.
I would play this up to -5.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Phoenix Mercury had just a 102.5 offensive rating without Kahleah Copper in 2025.Mercury vs Fire same-game parlay
Jovana Nogic has scored 11+ in all five starts this season, averaging 26.5 minutes compared to 14.8 off the bench. With Copper unlikely to play and Thomas banged up, Nogic should be back with the first unit. At its current -210 odds, this prop has to be included in a parlay to make it worth my while.
The Mercury have gone Under this total in four straight, and without Copper and/or Thomas, I don’t see a world where they sniff 80 points. I’ll bet this line down to 75.5.
Mercury vs Fire SGP
- Fire -2.5
- Jovana Nogic
- Mercury team total Under 79.5
- Best bet: 6-5, +0.61 units
- SGP: 2-9, +2.7 units
Mercury vs Fire odds
- Spread: Mercury +2.5 | Fire -2.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +120 | Fire -140
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
Mercury vs Fire trend
Phoenix is just 3-8 ATS this season, including a 2-4 mark on the road. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Fire
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date | Friday, June 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ION |
Mercury vs Fire latest injuries
Mercury: Alyssa Thomas (Questionable), Kahleah Copper (Doubtful), Sami Whitcomb (Out).
Fire: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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