LONDON — The last dregs of Keir Starmer’s authority were draining away even before his likely replacement could board the Monday morning train to Westminster.
Britain’s prime minister is widely expected to announce a timetable for his exit on Monday, less than two years after a landslide election victory returned his center-left Labour Party to power after 14 years. His putative successor — Andy Burnham, the outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester — would become Britain’s seventh leader in a decade.
Burnham will travel down from Makerfield, northwest England, and swear in as an MP on Monday afternoon after he won a special election for the parliamentary seat. The dressed-down, left-leaning politician beat his opponent from Nigel Farage’s poll-topping right-wing Reform UK party decisively and inspired hope in many of Labour’s dejected MPs, who fear losing to Reform at the next general election in 2029.
Starmer, who promised stable leadership in 2024 but has been rocked by U-turns, economic malaise and several political scandals that brought his judgment into question, insisted as recently as Friday that he would fight any challenge to his leadership.
But after consulting select Cabinet ministers on Friday afternoon and spending the weekend with his wife Victoria at his country residence, Chequers, Starmer’s momentum stalled.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle told Sky News on Sunday that Starmer was “making time to reflect on the political realities” of the situation. Another ally of the PM, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said he had “shut himself away with his family to think about this.”
As the deliberations continued, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Starmer “will resign” — and added a renewed critique of Labour policy on immigration and oil drilling. But the U.S. president hadn’t spoken to Starmer, and even late Sunday night senior figures in No. 10 didn’t know what the PM would do; there was talk that he still hadn’t made a final decision, and that only Victoria knew. “No one knows what’s going on,” said one Labour official.
Formally, Downing Street pointed merely to the PM’s previous insistence that he would fight on; only a tight group of people knew his thinking. While the Guardian reported that aides had drafted a resignation statement, some of those who spoke directly to the PM over the weekend didn’t learn what he planned to do — and instead offered moral support.
The change in No. 10’s stance, however, was sudden and stark. Aides went from vehemently insisting the PM would keep fighting to maintaining a conspicuous silence. Some of Starmer’s closest allies began privately talking about a world in which he departs.
The political reality they face is that it will soon become impossible for Starmer to govern as he loses the confidence of his own ministers.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander were among those who urged Starmer privately to set a timetable for his departure on Friday, according to people familiar with the discussions, while Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds — who the Labour official quoted above said had been “wobbly for quite some time” — conveyed the strength of feeling from MPs for a change in leadership. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood had previously urged Starmer to stand down.
The PM is under pressure to clarify his future before an expected Monday afternoon statement to MPs regarding his attendance at last week’s G7 summit in France. His weekly Cabinet meeting is also set for Tuesday.
Some Cabinet ministers privately urged Starmer to consider his legacy. The recurring theme is, “are you sure you really want to fight this? Don’t embarrass yourself,” according to the same Labour official quoted above. This person added: “There is a sense of residual loyalty for the man who took us out of opposition and into government, and an appreciation that it should be his decision.”
The Labour plotters seeking to topple Starmer argue it is he, not they, who would worsen Britain’s instability if he attempts to stay on in defiance of political gravity. “That sticks in his craw,” said a close supporter of the prime minister. “The people who came in and smashed up the restaurant are now saying Keir has to go to save the rest of the crockery. They are making an argument about instability and turmoil when it wouldn’t exist if there wasn’t such determination to get him out.”
Luke Sullivan, who served as Starmer’s political director in opposition, said: “On a human, personal level for Keir, it’s a tragedy. It’s personally very sad for him that we’ve got here less than two years after that historic victory.”
Coronation or contest
Attention in Westminster is turning fast from Starmer’s decision to whether Burnham becomes Britain’s prime minister unopposed, or whether another MP will challenge him by gathering nominations from 81 of Labour’s 403 MPs.
Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, has publicly said he will battle Burnham for the leadership — but many MPs believe he doesn’t have 81 backers and will cut a deal for a job instead. His team could not be reached for comment on his intentions Sunday.
Key allies of Burnham want a coronation, arguing a leadership contest would hurt party unity. But those same allies also want a handover in September to have more time to prepare a policy platform.
Some allies of Starmer are still pushing to ensure there is a contest to tease out Burnham’s policy intentions. If Starmer resigns, this would involve running what one called a “kamikaze candidate,” a high-profile figure whose politics would be aligned with the sitting PM in order to put Burnham through his paces. Kyle put himself in this camp Sunday, telling the BBC: “Contests are better wherever possible.”
Some MPs were ringing colleagues over the weekend to promote the idea of running Darren Jones, Starmer’s chief secretary, against Burnham. A Labour official allied to Starmer said: “The Labour Party has got a history of just throwing the bouquet over the bride’s shoulders and it landing in the wrong hands.”
But the idea of running a Starmerite candidate to test Burnham — who has run the Greater Manchester city region for almost a decade and is known in Westminster — was losing momentum over the weekend as the scale of his support became clear, four people with knowledge of the conversations said.
One of the four people, a government frontbencher, said a “hardened core” of Starmer allies wanted a contest but many MPs wouldn’t back one because they hope for a job with Burnham. “People are moving to a place of ‘this is happening and this is going to be the outcome, therefore that’s the best way for me to navigate that situation,’” they said. “And the reality is for most people, the answer is not being the last person to get on the bus.”
Another close ally of Starmer added: “If Keir steps down I think there will only be one candidate.”
The question of whether Starmer would allow a transition to happen in September, three months away, hasn’t yet been negotiated with No. 10.
One MP close to to Burnham said the prime minister had been “incommunicado” over the weekend, meaning there was no opportunity to talk about the arrangements.
Jones met Louise Haigh, who ran Burnham’s Makerfield campaign with fellow Labour MP Anneliese Midgley, last Thursday. A person with knowledge of the meeting said he assured her that the wheels of government would keep turning whatever happened, including preparations for a budget in the fall.
Burnham’s honeymoon period
While Starmer looks into the abyss, the honeymoon period for Burnham begins on Monday.
He plans to meet MPs who have been asking to see him in small groups over the coming days. He is set to use allies’ offices as a base while he waits to be assigned office space by the parliamentary authorities.
One Labour official said that some MPs who entered parliament in 2024 were proactively getting in touch with the Burnham camp. They are “letting it be known where they stand, that they can be called upon if needed,” the official said.
His allies continued to phone MPs over the weekend to gauge their support. One person allied to the campaign said more than 200 MPs were ready to back Burnham in any formal contest. (Others said they wouldn’t comment on the numbers.)
One minister who was contacted by Burnham’s allies said the tone of the calls differed from outreach by Starmer’s allies. Burnham’s supporters, the minister said, tended to listen more and demand less.
They added: “Keir’s people use secretaries of state that you may or may not know and they demand to know if you are loyal. Andy’s team is using friend networks. You are much more likely to take a call from someone you know and like than thinking, ‘this person’s an obnoxious prick demanding I support Keir Starmer.’”
But the upbeat and hopeful vibe from Burnham will not be enough for some MPs.
With allies who belong to conflicting ideologies advising Burnham on policy, several MPs have burning questions about what his agenda will actually look like. A second minister described it as a left-wing “experiment” they feared would be “unleashed” upon Britain.
Those nerves rose over the weekend after Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist advising Burnham, told Sky News he would back “exploring” changes to the government’s fiscal restraints on borrowing to invest in infrastructure.
Burnham himself wrote in his 2024 book Head North: “As anyone who knows me will verify, I’m more of a spender than a saver. I would much prefer to say ‘yes’.” This week will determine how fast he has to get used to saying “no.”
Sam Blewett contributed reporting.
