LONDON — If you thought Keir Starmer was in trouble now, just wait for Thursday’s elections.
The opinion polls would have to be “dramatically out” for the British PM — already hit by dire favorability ratings, a scandal over his pick for U.S. ambassador, and deep disenchantment among his own MPs — to avoid a terrible set of results in nationwide votes held May 7, top psephologist John Curtice, a professor at the University of Strathclyde, says.
With local votes taking place across swathes of England, and crucial national tests in Scotland and Wales looming, here are five potential flashpoints that could significantly increase the prime minister’s political vulnerability — and even tip him out of No.10 Downing Street less than two years after he swept to power on a landslide.
1) Relinquishing power in Wales
Slice through Wales and it ordinarily bleeds Labour.
The nation has been dominated by the center-left political party for more than a century. That winning streak continued when it got its own parliament — the Senedd — in 1999, with Labour claiming power in every election since.
This time, Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK and the left-wing nationalist Plaid Cymru appear to be catching the eye of voters.
The Welsh nationalists were the most effective party at blocking Reform in a Senedd by-election last fall, where they won Caerphilly from Labour — and pushed Farage into second place.
Losing Labour’s Welsh fortress would hurt. The new fully proportional electoral system is likely to make it almost impossible for one party to secure a majority.
If things are as bad as predicted, Welsh Labour could face a stark choice to either prop up its left-wing rivals, the pro-independence Plaid Cymru, as junior partners, or allow Farage’s Reform to take power in Wales.
Labour won 27 of Wales’ 32 constituencies at the general election in 2024. Abdicating power in its Welsh heartland would represent a damning fall from grace.
2) Stuck in the Scottish wilderness
The Scottish Parliament elections should have been Labour’s to lose.
In the 2024 Westminster election, Starmer’s party swept through Scotland, winning 37 out of 57 seats in a remarkable comeback. The Scottish National Party (SNP) were reduced to just nine seats.
That raised hopes that Labour’s long run in opposition against the independence-supporting SNP was finally coming to an end. The nationalists have been in power in Holyrood, running the Scottish government, since 2007.
Two years on, and Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar’s path to Bute House is tangled in knotweed. He may even have a fight on his hands for Scottish Labour to become the main opposition party.
Farage’s Reform UK is seeking to do the once-unthinkable and make real inroads across the country. His outfit is also having a major bearing on how other parties campaign.
If Labour does as badly as predicted — and the SNP wins power again, despite a long-running finances investigation and two changes of first minister since 2023 — there will be huge questions for Starmer about squandering the 2024 success.
Sarwar has already called for Starmer to resign. He made the plea in February, hoping a change of PM in Westminster would limit the damage north of the border. Watch to see if anyone else comes out swinging as results filter in through Friday and Saturday.
3) Feeling the Farage factor
Farage has embarked on an extensive tour of England, where city, council and district councils are up for grabs.
While much of his success last year came from snatching Tory councils, this time the Reform UK leader wants to park his teal tanks in Labour’s backyard — and show MPs he’s coming for their seats by 2029.
The party is aiming for a strong performance across the Midlands and northern England in areas including Barnsley, Gateshead and Sunderland. The latter city includes Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s constituency, one of many Cabinet ministers Reform hopes to eject in 2029.
“The problem for Labour is … that it’s not all in their own hands,” says Curtice. “Labour badly, badly need the Tories to recover at Reform’s expense,” he adds. A significant part of Farage’s success comes from former Tory voters. A Conservative recovery would, Curtice says, “be the best news” the PM has had for quite a while.
Despite the local elections not directly determining who governs in Westminster, the party’s “Vote Reform. Get Starmer out” slogan shows it believes voters see the contest as a referendum on an unpopular PM.
Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward predicts Labour will lose an astonishing 1,850 councilors while Reform will gain 1,550 seats, largely in white working class areas outside London.
Losing so many loyal foot soldiers could easily prompt MPs to argue change at the top is required — handing Reform voters exactly what they went in for.
4) Left behind in London
32 boroughs are up for grabs in the English capital — not just a Labour stronghold, but Starmer’s backyard.
Even in difficult years, Labour support has historically held up in the capital’s inner city boroughs, and swathes of the south.
This time it is the Green Party — under new leader Zack Polanski — who present a major threat.
In Starmer’s own council of Camden, Polanski’s Greens are neck-and-neck with Labour, according to new polling.
Polanski’s force is also eyeing up the Hackney mayoralty alongside winning councilors in Islington, Lewisham and Haringey. Nationally, the Greens have pivoted from placing environmental concerns front and center to talking about a wealth tax and condemning Donald Trump and Israel’s actions in the Middle East.
Curtice says Labour councils are more likely to fall to no overall control than be taken directly by Polanski’s team. “The Greens do need an enormous swing to start really doing the kind of damage to Labour that means … picking up control of councils,” he adds. Nonetheless, Curtice pointed out, Labour is likely to lose more votes, if not seats, to the Greens than Reform.
Given many Labour MPs represent cities, a strong Green showing in urban centers could further calls to shift left, leaving the prime minister in a real ideological tug of war.
5) All of which could see … rivals heading over the top
Starmer has faced leadership rumblings many times before — but this time feels particularly dicey.
A steady drip drip of terrible results could prompt senior politicians to put their head above the parapet and call for the prime minister’s departure.
Keep an eye on Angela Rayner, Starmer’s former deputy who resigned last year over a property tax error, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, both ambitious for the top job. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham needs a route back to parliament, but will also be closely watched.
Beyond those prospective leadership hopefuls, it will be worth watching whether senior members of Starmer’s Cabinet publicly or privately call time on the project — and, should the results be as bad as feared for Starmer, journalists will be frantically calling around Labour MPs to gauge remaining support.
Starmer’s loyal allies will try to frame poor results as disappointing but unremarkable for a mid-term governing party. “I’m sure that’s what Labour will spin and it will probably almost undoubtedly be nonsense,” says Curtice.
