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Sweden is up against a massive wall here, needing a perfect 90 minutes just to survive a dominant Japan squad.
Japan has been absolutely electric this tournament, and there’s no reason to fade them today. Trust the favorites to take care of business and deliver on their World Cup odds.
Check out my Japan vs. Sweden predictions and World Cup picks for June 25 to find out why.
TOP PICK
Who will win Japan vs Sweden: Japan (-114)
Let me start by saying Japan’s last competitive defeat came more than a year ago against Australia. It occurred during the World Cup qualifiers, but the match carried no real significance, as Japan had already secured qualification for the final tournament in March.
Since then, they have played 12 matches, winning eight, drawing three, and losing just one. Eight of those nine games came with clean sheets.
They have been convincing in their two World Cup matches so far and have publicly stated their ambition to win the trophy, which shows the level of belief within the squad.
They now face a Swedish side with several issues, one that only reached the World Cup thanks to playoff victories in March.
Those results softened the disappointment of a difficult qualifying campaign, but they did little to erase memories of home-and-away defeats to Kosovo, two draws against Slovenia, and clear losses to Switzerland.
Sweden’s problems are numerous, and I believe Japan will expose them when the two sides meet in Texas on Thursday.
Playable to -125.
Japan vs Sweden Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-137)
Sweden exposed major defensive weaknesses against the Netherlands, losing 5-1. Those issues were evident throughout their qualifying campaign, so the defeat suggests they have not solved many of their problems under new manager Graham Potter.
Seven of Sweden’s last eight matches have produced Over 3.5 goals, which tells you plenty about their recent games. They conceded at least three goals in three of those matches.
However, when you have players like Isak, Gyökeres, and Elanga in your squad, you are always a threat going forward. And Japan has shown that it came to the World Cup to play open, attacking football.
Japan have scored at least two goals in five of their last six competitive matches. There have been four goals scored across the two matches it has played so far at the World Cup.
I expect both teams to find the net when they meet on Thursday, so the 2.5-goal line should be cleared without too much trouble.
Playable to -150.
Japan vs Sweden goal scorer pick: Ayase Ueda (+160)
Ayase Ueda scored twice as Japan cruised to a 4-0 victory over Tunisia. The Feyenoord forward brought excellent form into the World Cup after an outstanding season in the Netherlands, where he scored 25 goals in 31 Eredivisie matches.
I’m backing him to take advantage of Sweden’s defensive vulnerabilities and get his name on the scoresheet once again.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Japan vs Sweden projected lineup
Japan (3-4-3): Suzuki, Tomiyasu, Itakura, Ito, Doan, Tanaka, Sano, Nakamura, Ito, Ueda, Kamada.
Sweden (3-5-2): Johansson, Lagerbielke, Hien, Lindelof, Bernhardsson, Karlstrom, Nygren, Ayari, Gudmundsson, Isak, Gyokeres.
Japan vs Sweden injuries
Japan: Kubo RW (Out).
Sweden: No key injuries to report.
Japan vs Sweden weather
Dome.
Japan vs Sweden odds
 Japan |
 Sweden |
|
|---|---|---|
| -113 | Moneyline | +355 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (-122) | Total | Under 2.5 (+117) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Japan vs Sweden
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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