John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His new book, “Braver New World: The Countries Daring to Do Things Others Won’t,” will be published in April. He is a regular POLITICO columnist.
Is there something wrong with me? I ask this more often than might be good for my health, as I increasingly find myself to be the only person in Berlin with a good word to say about German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
As the leader of Berlin’s latest fractious coalition marks his first year in office today, he sees denunciation all around him.
But while many Germans seem done with him, there is still a case to be made in Merz’s favor.
As it stands, the chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union is splintered. The party’s right accuse him of running scared of vital reforms for fear of alienating the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which he depends on to keep the government going. Meanwhile, on the left of Germany’s political spectrum, he’s regarded as an unreconstructed conservative, in hoc to business interests. One side thinks he is victimizing migrants, the other thinks he is too soft on them.
It is no wonder the CDU is shedding votes, or that Merz’s personal ratings are even worse than his predecessor Olaf Scholz at the lowest point of his chancellorship.
To add insult to injury, just as the economy was beginning to crank slowly into gear, then came the war on Iran, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in oil prices not seen since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Indeed, Merz could be forgiven for cursing his fate — and he does. He lashes out at others, at the European Commission for not deregulating fast enough, and at U.S. President Donald Trump for making his life, and that of pretty much every European leader, miserable.
Then, when he has a good few days, grappling with a thorny issue quietly, he manages to undermine himself. Upon returning from the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil for instance — as one of only a handful of major leaders who bothered going at all — Merz openly talked of a conversation he had with accompanying journalists about the host city: “Who among you would like to stay here? … Everyone was delighted to be back in Germany and to have left that place,” he said.
In fact, sometimes there seems no purpose behind a statement beyond self-sabotage.
As for dealing with Trump, while many may regard caution as the best way to approach the U.S. leader’s mercurial state of mind and oversized ego, this has not been Merz’s route. Instead, he’s gone from blithely suggesting “an entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership” to a group of students one minute, to posting about a “common goal” in Iran the next.
What, then, one might ask, is there to be said in support of him?
Now, I would not presume to argue that Merz has been sure-footed or consistent. However, I would contend the chancellor has been more strategic than he has been given credit for, particularly on defense and security.
He has worked diligently behind the scenes to help reinforce Ukraine, and he has been forthright in seeking to wean any remaining Germans away from their residual idiosyncratic affection for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Most importantly, Merz has used the mayhem of the moment to once and for all demonstrate to his country that, after decades of relying on the U.S., it must be looking after itself. And not just in words; Germany will hit the NATO target of 5 percent defense spending as early as 2029 — including 1.5 percent going toward critical infrastructure — making its military the size of Britain’s and France’s combined.
Merz has not shirked away from public discussion across Europe about a more confident and militarily resilient Germany either, as the move inevitably caused some bemusement in Paris — in keeping with Gaullist tradition, French President Emmanuel Macron has been talking of “strategic autonomy” for years now — and was met with consternation in Warsaw. Late in the day though it may be for his country, Merz has shouldered this responsibility.
And like many embattled leaders, while the chancellor is often criticized for devoting a disproportionate amount of his time to international affairs, this charge has little merit given that every aspect of global tensions is affecting the lived experience of voters — from food shortages to gasoline prices and terrorism.
Still, by his own admission, progress on the domestic front has been slow. Asked in a revealing interview with Der Spiegel to rate his government’s performance so far on a scale of 1 to 100, Merz responded: “Below 50.”
He didn’t shy away from repeated questions about arguments within the unpopular coalition, or about the dangers facing both parties either. “This is one of the last chances for the political center,” stated Merz in an appeal to his junior partners, asking that they drop their resistance to the gamut of welfare and pension reforms he is seeking to push through. Thankfully, both parties are inching toward changes to health funding, but all sides admit even that process has been acrimonious and difficult.
However, this is unavoidable — and the transparency here is refreshing. In a dig at his predecessor, the chancellor suggested that Scholz had continually told citizens everything would be alright if they voted for him, insisting they wouldn’t have to choose between social welfare and defense.
In that sense, Merz’s strengths are the flip side of Scholz’s weaknesses: He shoots from the hip, and there is a much-needed bluntness about him. He acknowledges things are dire and doesn’t want to hide that from the German public. The bile thrown at him is in part a by-product of the rancorous social media era, but it is also because Germans are struggling to come to terms with the end of the politics of consensus.
Germany’s politics has been turned on its head. The requirement of different parties to form coalitions, haggle and compromise is now denounced as weakness. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which seeks to break the consensus, is regularly topping opinion polls.
In September, the AfD is widely predicted to win the election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt and set a crisis in motion. The fear is that mainstream politicians both there and in Berlin will work themselves into a panic.
Merz knows that time isn’t on his side. But for the moment, neither of the ruling parties is going anywhere, and they need to summon the courage to finally deliver real change. Yes, this will entail taking risks. However, muddling along will come at even greater peril.
