As importers continue navigating one of the most turbulent trade environments in recent memory, executives at supply chain management and logistics provider Flexport said that a new round of tariffs could arrive before existing duties disappear, potentially keeping pressure on global supply chains despite ongoing court challenges.
During Flexport’s webinar on Tuesday, “Tariff Trends 2026: Expert Insights on the Evolving U.S. Tariff Landscape,” customs and trade experts outlined a rapidly evolving tariff regime.
A new round of tariffs and policy moves could include proposed Section 301 tariffs tied to forced labor concerns, changes to Section 232 metal duties, uncertainty surrounding the future of USMCA negotiations, and continued litigation over tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Marcus Eeman, director of customs at Flexport, said importers should not expect major changes when the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement reaches its scheduled July 1 review milestone.
“The July 1 deal is looking unlikely, but benefits continue,” Eeman said, noting that USMCA preferences would remain in effect even if negotiators fail to reach new agreements this summer.
According to Eeman, the U.S. is seeking a stronger U.S.-specific labor content requirements, particularly in automotive manufacturing, while Canada and Mexico continue pushing for relief from Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and other metals.
Mexico and Canada have argued that such duties run counter to the spirit of a free trade agreement.
Forced labor tariffs could replace expiring Section 122 duties
One of the most significant developments discussed during the webinar involved a proposed Section 301 tariff program targeting countries deemed to have inadequate forced labor enforcement.
Under recommendations currently under review by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 13 countries plus the European Union would face a 10% tariff, while 46 additional countries would face a 12.5% duty. Most countries that currently maintain trade agreements with the U.S. would fall into the lower tariff tier.
Flexport said the proposed tariff structure would exempt many products already excluded under prior IEEPA tariff programs, including unavailable natural resources, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, civil aircraft products and goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs. USMCA- and DR-CAFTA-qualified products would also be exempt.
Eeman said the USTR is also considering a tariff-rate quota system for textile imports, potentially allowing a specified volume of apparel imports to enter at a lower tariff rate before higher duties apply.
Comments on the proposal remain open through July 6, with a public hearing scheduled for July 7. Flexport expects the new Section 301 tariffs to be implemented before Section 122 duties expire on July 24.
Legal battle likely over new Section 301 program
Flexport also highlighted what could become the next major tariff court fight.
Supporters argue Section 301 clearly authorizes tariffs following investigations into trade practices that burden U.S. commerce.
Opponents counter that imposing tariffs on products representing roughly 99% of U.S. import value stretches congressional intent and could face challenges under the Supreme Court’s “major questions” doctrine.
Eeman noted that unlike the original 2018 Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, which were supported by extensive findings regarding intellectual property theft and industrial subsidies, the forced-labor proposal may face greater scrutiny over whether tariffs are an appropriate remedy.
Section 232 relief expands for select industries
The webinar also addressed recent modifications to Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs.
The administration recently created new duty reductions for agricultural equipment, residential HVAC systems and certain “mobile industrial” products such as forklifts, cranes and bulldozers. The threshold for products considered substantially made from U.S. metals was lowered from 95% to 85%, making it easier for manufacturers to qualify for reduced duty rates.
Trade agreement partners, including countries in the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and others, will qualify for capped 15% rates on certain mobile industrial products.
USMCA-qualified products may also receive reduced treatment under revised calculations for non-U.S. content.
Importers continue seeking IEEPA refunds
Jenn Park, director of trade advisory at Flexport, provided an update on the ongoing legal battle surrounding IEEPA tariffs and the Customs Automated Processing Engine, or CAPE, refund system.
The U.S. government appealed a Court of International Trade order requiring refunds of IEEPA tariffs, arguing that broad nationwide relief should not apply to entries that have already been finally liquidated. The appeal has created uncertainty regarding how importers may recover duties on older entries.
Despite the appeal, CAPE continues processing refund claims.
According to Flexport, CBP has accepted nearly $95 billion in refund claims for processing and has already transmitted $23.68 billion to the Treasury Department for refunds. More than 10.6 million entries have been liquidated or reliquidated for refund purposes.
CBP plans to launch Phase 2 of CAPE on June 29, expanding coverage to reconciliation entries, while Phase 3—targeting finally liquidated entries—is expected later this summer.
The post Flexport: New tariff wave could replace expiring trade duties by late July appeared first on FreightWaves.
