F1 Miami Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds – Miami International Autodrome 2026

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Formula 1 is back in action as it heads to the 305 for the Miami Grand Prix on Sunday, May 3.

After Kimi Antonelli secured pole yet again, Formula 1 odds are all over the Mercedes driver, and he’ll try to make it three straight checkered flags with a win at the Miami International Autodrome.

2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix odds

Driver Polymarket
Mercedes Kimi Antonelli 39%
Red Bull Max Verstappen 24%
Ferrari Charles Leclerc 12%
McLaren Lando Norris 10%
Mercedes George Russell 7%
McLaren Oscar Piastri 5%
Ferrari Lewis Hamilton 4%

Odds as of 5-2.

F1 Miami Grand Prix 2026 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Antonelli to win (+156)

The Miami Grand Prix has been on the circuit since 2022, and it’s known for heavy braking zones, including a couple at the end of long straightaways that will test drivers’ skills.

Right now, nothing is slowing Kimi Antonelli, who, after taking second in Australia to start the year, won both the pole and race in the Asia stops.

Antonelli’s driving, paired with the premier Mercedes engine, is the combo to beat.

Best bet: Lewis Hamilton podium finish (+426)

Lewis Hamilton has been all over the map in 2026, but he has shown the ability to move through traffic, finishing fourth in Australia after starting seventh.

Hamilton also has a podium finish to his name this season, grabbing third in China.

F1 Miami Grand Prix 2026 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Antonelli  2  Verstappen
3 Leclerc  4  Norris
5 Russell  6  Hamilton
7 Piastri  8  Colapinto
9 Hadjar  10  Gasly
11  Hulkenberg 12  Lawson
13 Bearman  14  Sainz
15 Ocon  16 Albon 
17  Lindblad 18 Alonso 
19  Stroll 20 Perez 
21 Bottas

F1 Miami Grand Prix 2026 pre-qualifying favorites

The Mercedes pairing has finished 1-2 in two of three races to start the season, with George Russell taking the opener in Australia and Kimi Antonelli winning the last two.

And despite Antonelli having a 9-point lead in the Drivers’ Standings through those three races, Russell is the slight favorite at +137 while Antonelli is second at +150.

There’s a big gap between them and the rest of the field, with the McLaren drivers next on the board despite being fifth and sixth in the standings. Oscar Piastri is +800 after finishing second in Japan, and Lando Norris is fourth on the board at +1200.

The Ferrari racers are next: Charles Leclerc (two podiums this season) and Lewis Hamilton (one podium) are both on the board at +1400. Max Verstappen is the only other driver in the mix at +3300.

Previous F1 Miami Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2025 McLaren Oscar Piastri McLaren McLaren
2024 McLaren Lando Norris McLaren McLaren
2023 Red Bull Max Verstappen Red Bull Red Bull
2022 Red Bull Max Verstappen Red Bull Red Bull

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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