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Following Barcelona, we’ve discovered two truths: one is that Mercedes can be beat, the other is that Lewis Hamilton — who ended Mercedes’ dominant run and found the checkered flag for the first time in a Ferrari — isn’t close to done.
In fact, he might just be settling into his next chapter. We’ll see how that plays out as the F1 season resumes at the Austrian Grand Prix, where Kimi Antonelli — whose five-race win streak ended in Spain — is the +203 favorite to get back on top.
Hamilton follows at +355, while Antonelli’s Mercedes teammate, George Russell, has the third-best Formula 1 odds at +426. Those are the only three drivers with wins this season.
Read below for my Austrian Grand Prix predictions and free betting picks for Sunday, June 28.
🏁 Austrian Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 George Russell |
Win outright | June 25 | <<+426>> | 19% |
| 🚩 Red flag during race | Yes | June 25 | <<+245>> | 29% |
📊 Austrian Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli |
<<+203>> | 33% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
<<+355>> | 22% |
| George Russell |
<<+426>> | 19% |
| Charles Leclerc |
<<+669>> | 13% |
 Max Verstappen |
<<+809>> | 11% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ Austrian Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Russell to win (+400)
The fanfare for a Hamilton win was much deserved, but it was also an important return to form for Russell, who ended a four-race podium drought to grab second in Barcelona.
Perhaps that’s the jump start he needs, as he’s been in teammate Antonelli’s shadow since winning the season-opening race in Australia.
Austria sets up nicely for Russell, who took the checkered flag here one year ago. The Red Bull Ring in Spielberg is renowned for producing some of the fastest lap times, so the fastest car this season should be in the mix.
Russell’s good vibes from last week and from last year are worth a flier at this number.
Prop pick: Red flag during Austrian GP — Yes (+245)
This is looking at the odds and liking them enough to take a flier.
There has not been a red flag issued in any Austrian Grand Prix race since the event returned to its shortened track layout in 1997. However, we’ve already been treated to some ultra-tight, high-speed battles (between teammates, no less) that were one mistake away from collision.
There are other technical factors to consider, including how these cars and their new 2026 technical regulations will face thinner air (roughly 8% thinner than sea level).
And let’s not forget Mother Nature: the circuit is in the Styrian mountains, which can open up the track to sudden downpours. These caused red flags in the 70s, for safety and visibility concerns.
🧠 How I’m picking the Austrian Grand Prix
One of the key traits of the Red Bull Ring is that its 10 corners are the fewest of any track on the F1 calendar.
That equals more straightaways, and that means the fastest cars should, in theory, be at an advantage.
That’s why Russell is an early pick, but I need to see how Antonelli rebounds in qualifying after his first real dud of the year in Barcelona (DNF). He’s definitely one to watch this weekend.
Not to spoil the good Hamilton vibes, as he’s gone 2-2-1 the last three weeks, but the Red Bull Ring has not been his best track, with his most recent podium coming in 2022.
Instead, this might be the jump-off point for Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc, who has had a forgettable start to the season. This course features heavy braking zones that reward mechanical grip and braking efficiency.
The Ferrari traditionally excels in slow-speed traction, and Leclerc, who won here in 2022, is among the best and most aggressive in heavy traction zones.
Of course, it’s hard to not consider sprinkling a wager on Red Bull’s Max Verstappen at the Red Bull Ring.
He’s dominated here with five career wins, and even though his car doesn’t stack up to Mercedes or Ferrari, his working knowledge of the track and experience count for something.
📋 Austrian Grand Prix favorites
Kimi Antonelli is the +203 favorite prior to qualifying, with Lewis Hamilton in second at +355. Close behind is George Russell in third at +426.
🏆 Previous Austrian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren |
| 2024 | George Russell | Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
❓ Austrian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Austrian Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is the betting favorite for the Austrian GP.
When and where is the Austrian Grand Prix?
Red Bull Ring is the site for the Austrian GP.
How can I watch the Austrian Grand Prix?
Apple TV has exclusive coverage of the Austrian GP.
Who won the Austrian Grand Prix in 2025?
Lando Norris of McLaren prevailed in this race a year ago.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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