TALLINN — Estonia is preparing to fend off Russian soldiers, even after the fighting in Ukraine is over.
The small Baltic nation has blocked some 1,300 Russian ex-combatants from entering the country this year, according to its foreign ministry. Now it’s pushing Brussels to ban former Russian soldiers from entering the EU, and to keep them out long after the guns have fallen silent.
“You cannot allow these people who are committing the crimes, who are raping the women, who are killing the children and civilians on the battlefield, that we allow these people to come to Europe,” Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told POLITICO.
“It’s not the question of Estonia, it’s the question of the European security,” he added.
Estonia first raised the idea at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in January. Though critics warn a blanket ban could also hit coerced conscripts and deserters, the proposal drew the support of Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief and a former Estonian prime minister.
The idea enjoys the support of “many member states,” Kallas said in January.
In late March, the EU’s national leaders asked the European Commission to explore “possible ways to address” the issue. Kallas has promised concrete proposals in time for an EU summit in June.
Lithuania has also pledged to maintain a blacklist, alongside strict entry restrictions that already amount to a near-total ban on Russian citizens.
‘From Bucha to Brussels’
Estonia frames the proposal as both a security and a moral imperative.
“People committing the war crimes … should not walk on the European countries’ soil,” Pevkur said.
Estonian officials warn that former soldiers could be recruited by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s security services for sabotage or espionage in Europe.
“I’m sure Putin will push these people to Europe,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told journalists in January. “We know already hybrid attacks today, but can you imagine these hundreds of thousands of ex-combatants, criminals coming here?”
“I’m sure they’re not just going to just work and pay our taxes,” he added. “No, they’re going to do many bad things.”
Officials also argue that those who fought in a military accused of atrocities — including killings and torture in places like Bucha, near Kyiv — should not be rewarded with entry into the EU.
“There cannot be a path from Bucha to Brussels,” Tsahkna said.
Blanket ban
Estonia defines ex-combatants broadly to cover everyone involved in Russia’s war effort, from regular troops to proxy forces such as the Wagner mercenary group.
That includes hundreds of thousands mobilized since 2022, as well as tens of thousands who later deserted at risk of a prison sentence.
Pevkur rejected concerns that a blanket ban would also punish those who’d been recruited under pressure. “Before joining the Russian Army, they have the chance to flee,” he said.
However, during Russia’s mobilization drive, Estonia was among those countries that decreed that fleeing conscription would not qualify as grounds for asylum or other forms of protection, suggesting that dissenters should resist the war at home.
Independent journalists and experts have reported that some 300,000 Russian men have been mobilized, many under pressure. Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, estimates that some 18,000 mobilized soldiers have been killed. The remainder have yet to be discharged.
Returning veterans
Joris van Bladel, a military sociologist at the Brussels-based Egmont Institute, said returning veterans “constitute a risk group — both for Russia and for us.”
Using court records, the Russian investigative outlet Novaya Gazeta estimates that at least 6 percent of demobilized soldiers have been convicted of crimes in Russia, including more than 900 serious offences such as murder.
Van Bladel warned that the return of roughly 1 million soldiers after the war could strain Russian society, given the country’s limited attention to psychological and social reintegration.
“These individuals often return deeply destabilized, in some cases psychologically fragile, in others inclined toward risk-taking or violence,” he said.
Still, he stressed, the primary impact would be domestic.
“It’s also a problem for us, but honestly, I don’t think it’s to the extent that Tallinn is now suggesting,” he said.
The bigger risk, he said, is that Europe overreacts.
“The danger is that it fosters paranoia, leading us to view every Russian and every veteran as a potential security threat.”
Russian rights activists warn that punishing deserters, rather than supporting them, discourages them from laying down arms.
They also highlight the risks faced by those who refuse conscription, from fines to prison sentences of up to 15 years for fleeing the front.
On the issue of soldiers leaving Russia, Putin and his critics seem to be aligned.
On Monday, the Movement of Conscientious Objectors said in a post on Telegram that a Russian man who’d been served with draft papers had been thwarted in his attempt to escape. After being first stopped at the Russian border, he managed to make it to Belarus, only to be denied boarding when he tried to fly onward from Minsk.
