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New Zealand and Egypt are level on 1 point each after the first round of group-phase matches.
There is everything to play for as they go head-to-head in Vancouver. The victors – should one team win – are almost guaranteed a place in the knockout phase.
Read on for my New Zealand vs. Egypt predictions and World Cup picks for June 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. at BC Place.
Who will win Egypt vs New Zealand: Draw (+456)
How good is New Zealand? That is the key question for soccer bettors ahead of this intriguing Group G encounter.
The All Whites, as New Zealand is known, were stronger than expected in their opening game vs Iran.
Little in their performance pointed towards the 65 places separating the two sides in the FIFA rankings – Iran 20th, New Zealand 85th – as Darren Bazeley’s underdogs impressed all over the field to secure a deserved 2-2 draw.
Egypt played well in their 1-1 opener vs. lackluster Belgium, yet they were only marginally better than Iran by most metrics. That being the case, it is hard to justify Egypt’s odds of -156, which give them a 61 percent chance to win the match.
The smartest way to oppose Egypt’s clear favoritism would be to support New Zealand on the spread or back the draw.
New Zealand +1.5 (-212) is the solution for those seeking a conservative pick. I prefer the draw (+317), an outcome that landed in 10 of the tournament’s opening 28 matches (36% hit rate).
Play the draw at anything up to +290.
TOp pick
Egypt vs New Zealand Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 Goals (+133)
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
It is unwise to make investment decisions based purely on vibes, so I am turning instead to the robust statistics that underpin the attacking energy emanating from most World Cup matches so far.
Across the opening 28 games of the World Cup, the average goals-per-game count was 3.18. That figure is higher than widely predicted and far higher than occurred in the same number of matches since the start of the 2022 edition of the tournament in Qatar.
The first two games involving these two sides produced six goals. The average xG (Expected Goals) across those two matches – New Zealand 2-2 Iran, and Belgium 1-1 Egypt – was 2.59. Four scoring opportunities in each of the two games were designated as ‘big chances’.
Given these trends, it is surprising to find that Over 2.5 Goals is available at plus-money odds. The odds of +133 suggest there is only a 43 percent of three or more goals in this game.
I believe the market underrates the chances of Over 2.5 Goals landing. Play Overs at anything up to +110.
Egypt vs New Zealand projected lineup
Egypt (4-2-3-1): Shobeir; Hany, Ibrahim, Fathi, Fatouh; Attia, Lasheen; Salah, Ashour, Trezeguet; Marmoush
New Zealand (4-2-3-1): Crocombe; Payne, Surman, Boxall, Cacace; Bell, Stamenic; McCowatt, Singh, Just; Wood
Egypt vs New Zealand injuries
Egypt: Hamdy LB (Out).
New Zealand: Garbett LW (Out)
Egypt vs New Zealand weather
Dome.
Egypt vs New Zealand odds
| Egypt | New Zealand | |
|---|---|---|
| -156 | Moneyline | +488 |
| +317 | Draw | +317 |
| Over 2.5 (+133) | Total | Under 2.5 (-138) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Egypt vs New Zealand
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | BC Place, Vancouver, Canada |
| Date | Sunday, June 21, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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