Cry Havoc! and let slip the dogs of war

Polymarket is currently pricing US Forces Enter Iran by April 30 at Yes 53%. That number may be too low.

Hegseth and the war department are moving assets into position. The latest signal from Trump is unambiguous — Hegseth wants to end this by force, and Trump has repeatedly telegraphed a preference for striking when markets are closed. The weekend window is deliberate.

Watch Kharg Island. Iran’s oil export infrastructure sits there — it is the economic throat of the regime. Sea and air assets are in range. A strike or amphibious action as early as this weekend is a live scenario, not a tail risk.

If you are not positioned ahead of this, the window is closing. Oil vol is cheap relative to what a Kharg strike does to the crude curve. WTI $78 is not the downside scenario anymore — it is the baseline if this goes kinetic.