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Spencer Strider is finding his groove again after an early-season oblique injury, dialing up a 2.04 ERA over his last few outings.
That spells trouble for a sluggish Mets offense that hasn’t found its footing at Citi Field. Our Braves vs. Mets predictions tonight heavily target New York’s under team total, banking on the Braves’ ace to keep the bats quiet.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 12.
Who will win Braves vs Mets today: Braves moneyline (+104)
The Atlanta Braves will rely on Spencer Strider to give them a quality outing tonight, and his underlying metrics suggest a good start is in the cards. While the right-hander owns a 5.40 ERA over his last 10 innings of work, Strider also has a 2.10 FIP during that span.
Additionally, his xFIP also sits at 3.69 on the road in 2026, and the New York Mets are batting just .228 at Citi Field this season with a poor 87 wRC+. Strider is in a good position to take advantage of New York’s offensive struggles on home soil.
On the other side, Nolan McLean owns a 4.29 xERA over his last two appearances, and he also has a 4.46 ERA at Citi Field this season. While Atlanta’s power numbers haven’t been overwhelming lately, the Braves are still generating a 40.3% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Against a pitcher whose underlying metrics have been mediocre, Atlanta should have opportunities to produce enough offense to support Strider.
I’ll play this pick up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: McLean has allowed 1.67 HR/9 over the last month, and 1.17 HR/9 at home this season, which is dangerous against the third-best power-hitting team in the big leagues. Braves vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-117)
Neither team is flourishing offensively at the moment. The Braves are averaging just 4.2 runs across their last five games and own a modest .168 ISO over the last two weeks, while the Mets have scored only 3.6 runs per contest over their previous six outings.
Atlanta’s bullpen is locked in right now, carrying a stellar 0.93 ERA across its last 17.1 innings of work. The Mets’ relief corps has also been reliable, posting a 3.34 xERA over the last two weeks.
With both bullpens pitching well and neither lineup generating consistent offense, this feels like a game that stays below the total.
I’ll play this pick up to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 23-20, +1.51 units
- Over/Under bets: 25-17, +4.03 units
Braves vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Braves +104 | Mets -108
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+178) | Mets +1.5 (-186)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Braves vs Mets trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 away games (+15.20 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
How to watch Braves vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Friday, June 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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