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Toronto Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease continues to rack up strikeouts at an elite rate, and a favorable matchup against a swing-and-miss-prone Boston Red Sox lineup makes Over 7.5 strikeouts my favorite play tonight.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, June 16.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (+115)
Dylan Cease has eclipsed this total in five straight outings, averaging 9.4 strikeouts per start.
The Toronto Blue Jays starter has elite swing-and-miss stuff, ranking in the 98th percentile in whiff rate, while owning a 36.8% strikeout rate.
This matches up well against a Boston Red Sox lineup that sits 20th in xBA against the slider with a 31.7% whiff rate, the pitch that Cease uses as his out-away pitch with a 46.8% whiff on it.
I’d buy Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts down to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Cease’s 13.63 K/9 leads all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings in 2026.Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
The Blue Jays lineup matches up well to succeed against BoSox starter Payton Tolle. His most-used pitch is a four-seamer, which the Jays have crushed with a .271 average, the second-best mark in baseball. Add Over 4.5 hits allowed for Tolle.
The player who profiles best against Tolle’s pitch-mix is Kazuma Okamoto. He owns a .471 average against the four-seamer when facing LHP. Add Okamoto Over 0.5 hits.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP
- Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
- Payton Tolle Over 4.5 hits allowed
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto)
Tolle hasn’t allowed a home run in four straight starts, so I’ll make this a half-unit wager.
However, Okamoto is one bat that profiles well against Tolle’s pitch mix.
Okamoto leads the Jays with 15 homers this season and owns a .360 average, a .640 slug-rate, and a 61.2% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and sinker.
This positions him well for success today as the Boston hurler has a 64% usage rate on those pitches.
- Best bets: 34-35, +4.05 units
- SGPs: 13-56, +3.35 units
- HR picks: 11-58, +1.4 units
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -120 | Boston +100
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+140) | Boston +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-16-2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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