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Boston Red Sox starter Sonny Gray is due for some regression, and Toronto Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela is a prime candidate to take advantage of this outstanding matchup.
Read on as my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 18 explain why.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Brandon Valenzuela Over 0.5 hits (-175)
Brandon Valenzuela draws in for today’s matinee, and I’m expecting his bat to prevail in a plus-matchup against Boston Red Sox starter Sonny Gray.
Gray’s 3.03 ERA is quite lower than his 4.09 xERA. He also ranks in the 27th percentile in xBA while not displaying swing-and-miss stuff with a low velo four-seamer and cutter that he throws most often.
Valenzuela profiles well against this mix with a .299 xBA against these two pitch types.
He’s been dominant at the plate against these pitches lately, with a .381 xBA and .769 SLG since June 2.
He owns a team-high 190 WRC+ in that nine-game stretch, yet is priced as the second-highest odds to record a hit.
Play to -185.
COVERS INTEL: Valenzuela has recorded a hit in eight of his last nine games, with a 1.089 OPS and 190 WRC+ in that stretch.Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Another Toronto Blue Jays batter who profiles well against Gray is Jesus Sanchez, who owns a .333 average and a 44.1% hard-hit rate against his most utilized pitches to left-handed batters this season.
He’s also recorded a hit in 20 of his last 28 games, owning a team best 166 WRC+ in that stretch.
I’ll also take advantage of a low strikeout total for Trey Yesavage.
This total feels like an overreaction to his last two starts because he still owns a .191 xBA this season with a near 30% whiff rate, while averaging 5.2 strikeouts per game.
Additionally, the Red Sox are below the Mendoza line when it comes to their batting average against the split fastball.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP
- Brandon Valenzuela Over 0.5 hits
- Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
- Trey Yesavage Over 4.5 Ks
Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+540)
Sanchez profiles extremely well against Gray, owning a .423 BA, .721 SLG, and 10.0% barrel rate against his primary pitch mix since his breakout started on May 11.
Gray doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss, which should allow Sanchez plenty of opportunities to barrel up the baseball.
There is some risk here, however. Gray doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has been able to keep the ball in the yard in four of his last five starts.
That’s why I’m limiting this to a half-unit wager despite the strong matchup.
- Best bets: 34-37, +1.85 units
- SGPs: 13-58, +1.35 units
- HR picks: 11-60, +0.4 units
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +106 | Boston -124
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Blue Jays have covered the F5 run line in their last five games (+5.35 Units / 89% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, 6-18-2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.78 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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