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If even the Portland Trail Blazers are going to upset the San Antonio Spurs early this week, then why can’t the Phoenix Suns shock the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Perhaps that is a bold thought, but there is still value to be found in these player props and NBA picks on Wednesday, April 22.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Daniss Jenkins |
Under 7.5 points | <<-112>> |
 Dillon Brooks |
20+ points | <<+140>> |
| Devin Booker |
Over 5.5 assists | <<+120>> |
Prop #1: Daniss Jenkins Under 7.5 points
Where was this Orlando Magic defense all season? Well, to put it simply, it was injured.
But in the final two weeks of the regular season, Orlando had the best defensive rating in the NBA. There is very much a sample size worry to that compliment, but it was the best indicator we had of what could be coming from the Magic in the postseason.
And that has certainly delivered in Orlando’s last two games, eviscerations of the Charlotte Hornets and the Detroit Pistons. I mean, really, how often do you get to use the plural form of “evisceration”?
Only Cade Cunningham produced for Detroit in Game 1, scoring 39 points in 40 minutes, shooting 13-of-27 from the field. His conditioning while coming back from a collapsed lung was astounding.
When Cunningham was sidelined, Daniss Jenkins proved a shockingly steady piece for the Pistons, but with Cunningham now back, Jenkins’ playing time should plummet further than Sunday’s 22 minutes. Even with that elevated playing time, he scored just six points.
Cunningham is all Detroit has. He might need to play 44 minutes against this defense. Every Cunningham minute lessens the chances of Jenkins seeing added time or added responsibilities.
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Prop #2: Dillon Brooks 20+ points
Dillon Brooks scored 18 points in Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But the more pertinent stat is that the Phoenix Suns’ agitator took 22 shots, most on the team by five attempts.
The Thunder know to focus on Devin Booker. With the ball forced out of his hands, who is never going to shy from a shot? The one and only Dillon Brooks.
Phoenix is not going to discourage Brooks, not that it would have any effect. The Suns need some combination of Booker, Brooks and Jalen Green to get hot to have any hope of keeping up with the Thunder.
It will be inefficient. It might be a net-negative. But expect Brooks to chuck plenty again tonight, and that likelihood creates clear value in this milestone prop.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Prop #3: Devin Booker Over 5.5 assists
If Oklahoma City is going to force the ball out of Devin Booker’s hands, then that thought immediately creates value in his assists prop, particularly at this plus-money.
Booker had only two assists in Game 1, but that was more a reflection of his teammates’ shooting than anything else. Outside of Booker (8-of-17, 47.1% from the field), Phoenix shot just 31.8% from the field.
By no means are the Suns about to find offensive rhythm. The Thunder are too good defensively. But 31.8% from the field was particularly wretched.
Expect that to climb past 40% tonight, some of that improvement coming from Booker’s passes simply because Oklahoma City will refuse to risk the Phoenix superstar getting hot.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.
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