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Former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad is on a two-fight skid and now draws rising contender Gabriel Bonfim in a UFC Fight Night main event that carries major implications for the division.
Muhammad is the favorite at -130 in the UFC odds, while Bonfim is a +100 underdog. With Muhammad trying to get back into title contention, Bonfim’s upward trajectory makes him a worthy opponent when they clash in Las Vegas.
Read on for our Muhammad vs. Bonfim predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, June 6.
Muhammad vs Bonfim fight prediction: Bonfim moneyline (+100)
After his much-publicized rise from anonymity to world champion, Belal Muhammad has dropped his last two fights, primarily due to being drawn into extended, unfavorable exchanges with top strikers.
Whereas Gabriel Bonfim isn’t as refined as Jack Della Maddalena or Ian Garry, he poses a stylistic problem: he is a versatile, mobile striker with legitimate power. Muhammad has to make this an ugly fight, but the rapidly improving Bonfim looks like he’s catching him on the decline. Bonfim is the pick.
Muhammad vs Bonfim best bet: Bonfim moneyline (+100)
Bonfim is taking a significant step up in class against a fighter who held a world title just two fights ago. Muhammad remains one of the division’s toughest and most durable competitors, but he has been increasingly unable to dictate the terms of his fights against elite opposition.
Bonfim has shown measurable improvements in his cardio, takedown defense, and striking composure with each appearance, and he looks to be hitting his stride at a time when Muhammad appears to be slipping. My best bet is Bonfim straight up.
COVERS INTEL: Muhammad has been outlanded 250-188 in significant strikes during his two-fight skid, which indicates that his neutralizing style is starting to lose its effectiveness.Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Muhammad | Bonfim |
| To win outright | <<-105>> | <<-110>> |
| To win by KO/TKO | <<+625>> | <<+320>> |
| To win by decision | <<+220>> | <<+450>> |
| To win by submission | <<+675>> | <<+450>> |
| Total rounds | Over 3.5 <<-190>> |
Under 3.5 <<+145>> |
Odds as of 6-6.
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Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim tale of the tape
| Muhammad | Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 24-5 | Record | 19-1 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 4 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 13 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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